What Nigerians can learn from Tinubu, IBB, and the art of strategic alliances

When it comes to political satire, few books compare to the great novel Animal Farm by the inimitable George Orwell, in which the anthropomorphic animals of Manor Farm rebel, overthrow the farm owner, Mr Jones, and take over the governance of the farm and their own lives. The novel ends years later with a great gathering in which the leadership of the animals meets with the leadership of their sworn enemies, the humans. When the other farm animals looked in through the window, it wasn’t clear which were the animals and which were the humans.

In the halls of Transcorp Hotel in Abuja last week, a gathering took place to launch the book of former military leader, General Ibrahim Babangida. The book, as one might expect with anything related to this controversial figure in our national history, has sparked a storm. I am reading it and gathering my thoughts, and I might publish my review next week. But while that process is ongoing, I thought I should comment on the gathering that day at Transcorp and the lessons from it.

It was a notable gathering, one that drew many prominent Nigerians, some of whom others believed to be mortal enemies who would not be caught dead in the same room. In the battle for control of this country, many had fought on opposite sides—dictators against politicians, oppressors against rights activists, and junta leaders against self-styled democrats.

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From a list of dignitaries that included former military rulers Generals Yakubu Gowon, Abdulsalami Abubakar, former Ghanaian President Nana Akufo-Addo, and former presidential candidate Peter Obi, who all spoke glowingly of IBB and his antics, many Nigerians have been calling out President Bola Ahmed Tinubu for attending. This is because the June 12 annulment orchestrated by IBB not only truncated Nigeria’s democratic journey but also led to the ouster of Tinubu as a senator of the Federal Republic. He had to flee Nigeria in the aftermath of that annulment to escape the Abacha Death Squad. Tinubu was a prominent figure in the National Democratic Coalition (NADECO) that fought doggedly for the restoration of MKO Abiola’s mandate. That coalition was hounded by the military junta of the time and scattered into exile.

I suppose what many Nigerians are forgetting is that although IBB annulled those elections, he quickly exited the scene and left General Sani Abacha, whom he is now blaming for annulling the elections, to viciously crush the democrats, among whom was Tinubu. Make no mistake about it; IBB laid the groundwork for Abacha to emerge as Head of State. His fingerprint was on that political murder weapon. So Nigerians’ outrage regarding Tinubu’s attendance is a legitimate response as observers of politics and their politicians. What surprised me, though, was the vehemence of Nigerians’ criticism of Tinubu’s attendance, and I think this reflects a short-term amnesia.

For the record, Tinubu and IBB are not enemies. If they ever were, they haven’t been in a long time—long before this book launch. Many seem to have forgotten that in January 2022, when he was running for President, Tinubu visited Minna and paid a courtesy call to IBB to seek his blessings. After meeting IBB behind closed doors at his Minna residence, which seems like a Mecca for every aspiring president, one they must visit to “consult” IBB, journalists accosted Tinubu, and he told them, “I cannot come to Niger State and not stop by to pay a courtesy call on the enigma, General Ibrahim Badamasi Babangida.” He stated that he had visited to receive prayers from Babangida for his presidential ambitions. He wouldn’t be the first and certainly not the last politician to visit IBB, who, after Abacha’s death, re-emerged as a preeminent godfather of Nigerian politics by paving the way for Obasanjo’s emergence as president in 1999 and made a rather limp attempt at running for president himself in 2011. But his shadow loomed large in Nigerian politics.

In 2015, General Muhammadu Buhari, IBB’s famed nemesis, if one could call him that, visited Babangida’s Hilltop mansion to seek IBB’s blessings for his presidential ambition. Only this January, Peter Obi of the Labour Party was at the same residence for consultation with the “evil genius.” Nearly every politician who has run for president in this country since 1999 has made their way to that Hilltop mansion to present themselves to IBB and seek his blessings.

My greatest disappointment in this whole drama is Nigerians’ failure to understand how politicians move and ally. The mantra of no permanent enemy, only permanent interest, has guided every political meeting and spat in this country. El-Rufai’s quarrel with the APC, with his former friends Tinubu, Uba Sani, and Nuhu Ribadu, and his recent bombshell interview are all driven by this mantra. In the end, it will be resolved by this mantra. MKO Abiola, IBB, and Abacha were all friends and allies, and it is well documented that Abiola was a major sponsor of the IBB coup of 1995 in return for favourable placement to win future elections in the country. It did not end well.

So when they are hugging and laughing and hoisting each other’s arms in the air, Nigerians wonder where the poisonous miasma of that political feud has disappeared to.

Few politicians have demonstrated a better understanding of this than Tinubu, who used this to outsmart everyone and emerged as the APC presidential candidate in 2023 despite the challenges before him at the time. A prominent politician, who was once vehemently opposed to Tinubu, confirmed this to me. In his own words, he told me how few people had publicly insulted Tinubu more than he had, yet when he got into serious trouble, it was Tinubu, not his party members, who reached out to him and offered to help. Many Nigerians may not be pleased with the state of the country at this moment, but it is difficult to see a smarter politician oust Tinubu and the army of loyalists he has built across the country through alliances and strategic partnerships. You may or may not agree with his politics or the state of the country under his watch, but one should not be blind to his political sagacity.

In this, I think there is a lesson for Nigerians. The permanence of our hatred for one another, the interminable grudges we hold against our neighbours, rival tribes or clans, opposing faiths and groups should not be predicated on the assumption of never making peace. It is dangerous to carry the war of some politicians and ruin your relationships with others over these matters. The tendency is that when IBB is launching a book to confirm that Abiola won the 1993 elections, which everyone has known since 1993, and the claims about the annulment of that election, his perceived political enemies will find a way to reconcile and gather. One should take a cue from the actions of these wise politicians. As a people, our interests are best served if we reconcile and work towards a common goal.