Global demand for air conditioning is expected to more than triple by 2050, the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) has warned, highlighting the urgent need for sustainable cooling solutions.
The warning accompanied the launch of UNEP’s Global Cooling Watch 2025 report at the COP30 climate summit in Belém, Brazil.
According to UNEP, the surge in demand is driven by rising populations, increasing wealth, and more frequent extreme heat events.
“Rising demand for more polluting and inefficient cooling systems would almost double cooling-related greenhouse gas emissions over 2022 levels,” the report stated.
The organisation added that the estimate was based on internal data and modelling over the period from 2022 to 2050.
“Installed cooling capacity is on a trajectory to triple by 2050… Yet billions will still lack adequate protection from heat. We must reimagine cooling, not as a source of emissions, but as a cornerstone of heat resilience and sustainable development,” UNEP said.
The most rapid growth in demand is expected in Africa and South Asia.
UNEP chief, Inger Andersen, emphasised the urgency of the issue, stating, “As deadly heat waves become more regular and extreme, access to cooling must be treated as essential infrastructure alongside water, energy and sanitation. But we cannot air condition our way out of the heat crisis, which would drive greenhouse gas emissions higher and raise costs.”
The report recommended adopting passive cooling strategies, including improved building insulation, shading, ventilation, and solar off-grid solutions. These measures can reduce indoor temperatures, protecting people and economies from extreme heat.
“Passive, energy efficient and nature-based solutions can help meet our growing cooling needs and keep people, food-chains and economies safe from heat as we pursue global climate goals,” Andersen added.
UNEP’s Global Cooling Watch highlights that implementing these measures could reduce cooling-related emissions by 64 per cent below the levels expected in 2050, while pairing them with renewable energy and efficient technologies could achieve even greater reductions.
The report also noted that sustainable cooling strategies could generate substantial economic benefits, including energy savings and reduced infrastructure costs.
