American universities are bracing for a steep drop in international student enrollment this fall, as new visa restrictions and policy shifts under the Donald Trump administration will keep 150,000 foreign students from arriving on U.S. campuses.
According to estimates from the Association of International Educators (NAFSA) and JB International, international student numbers could fall by as much as 30 to 40 per cent in the 2025–26 academic year compared to 2024–25.
The organisations plan to release updated enrollment data in November.
The decline follows months of cancelled visa appointments at U.S. embassies and consulates in key sending countries, including Nigeria, India, China and Japan.
The State Department also reported in August that more than 6,000 foreign student visas had been revoked since President Donald Trump returned to office in January.
The economic implications are significant as NAFSA projects that the U.S. could lose about $7 billion in economic activity in the 2025–26 school year alone.
For every three international students, one new American job is created or supported by the average $35,000 these students spend annually on housing, food, transportation and other living costs.
“I foresee a major economic crisis over international students that could last for years,” a senior fellow at the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy at Tufts University and former Obama-era undersecretary of state for public diplomacy, who once oversaw major student exchange programs, told The Conversation.
According to the report, international student enrollment has been a cornerstone of American higher education for over a century.
Beginning in the early 20th century with philanthropic programs and later boosted by U.S. government initiatives such as the Fulbright Program, foreign student numbers steadily climbed.
From just 26,000 students in 1949–50, enrollment grew to 286,000 by 1979–80, surpassed 500,000 in the early 2000s, and crossed the one million mark in 2015–16.
In 2023–24, there were 1.1 million international students in the U.S., with more than half from China and India, according to the Institute for International Education.
Foreign students now make up about 50 per cent of all U.S. college enrollment, compared with per cent in Canada, 31 per cent in Australia and 27 per cent in the United Kingdom.
The Trump administration’s tougher immigration stance has played a decisive role in the downturn.
The Conversation reported that within his first 90 days in office, the president invoked the 1952 Immigration and Nationality Act, giving the Secretary of State broad powers to expel students deemed potential threats to U.S. foreign policy.
In addition to visa revocations, the administration has imposed a travel ban on citizens from 19 countries, mostly in the Middle East and Africa.
It has also announced plans to cap student stays at four years, regardless of degree length, and to restrict the 60-day post-graduation grace period, making it harder for foreign graduates to remain in the U.S. for work opportunities.
