Tinubu: Shaping foreign policy on economic security

“The first step of a leader is to be right with yourself. Integrity is the basis of leadership” – Candoleezza Rice

At the heart of foreign policy, two central themes have persisted over time: the pursuit of economic wealth and the quest for political power. These twin pillars have defined the strategies of empires and nations alike, as they have sought to expand influence, build alliances, and protect their national interests. In the modern era, these goals have been redefined and reinterpreted within the context of globalisation, technological advancement, and shifting power dynamics. Nations are now vying for strategic advantages in a world where soft power – the ability of a country to shape the preferences, opinions, and behaviours of other countries or populations through cultural appeal, values, diplomacy, and ideas – is as critical as military or economic dominance.

One of the central drivers of foreign policy has always been the pursuit of economic prosperity. Nations seek to secure resources, markets, and trade routes to boost their domestic economies. In today’s globalised world, this pursuit is more interconnected than ever. Trade agreements, foreign investments, and global supply chains have transformed the way countries approach economic growth, and foreign policy plays a pivotal role in facilitating or restricting these economic flows.

While economic prosperity is an important goal of foreign policy, the pursuit of political power is also equally vital, as political power enables countries to set the agenda on international issues. Nations are constantly striving to enhance their political influence, whether through alliances, international organisations, or military strength. The balance of power in international relations is always shifting, and foreign policy is the tool through which countries seek to either maintain their dominance or challenge the existing order.

Given the complex nature of the present world, it is imperative for nations to seek to achieve a balance between economic prosperity and political influence for effective foreign policy. Countries must recognise that focusing exclusively on economic growth without building political influence can leave them vulnerable to external pressures. Similarly, pursuing political goals without a robust economic foundation can lead to overextension and domestic instability.

President Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s foreign policy is rooted in the belief that Nigeria’s economic security is key to its regional and global geopolitical influence. As Africa’s most populous country and one of its largest economies, Nigeria holds considerable potential as a leader in West Africa and a strategic partner in global affairs. However, it also faces challenges, particularly given its reliance on oil exports, which have historically exposed it to vulnerabilities from fluctuating global oil prices and the shift toward renewable energy sources.

At the heart of Tinubu’s strategic vision is the “Renewed Hope” agenda, the central theme on which he ran his campaign for Nigeria’s presidency. This agenda focuses on economic rejuvenation and the reestablishment of Nigeria’s leadership role in Africa. The strategy recognises that to amplify its influence on the international stage, Nigeria must first address its economic challenges, such as unemployment, poverty, insecurity, and infrastructure deficits. Tinubu aims to build a more resilient economy through a diversification strategy, emphasising sectors like agriculture, manufacturing, technology, and particularly, the development of Nigeria’s energy resources.

On the global stage, Tinubu’s foreign policy reflects a careful balance between engaging with Western powers and expanding relations with emerging economies such as China and India. The United States and European Union remain important partners for Nigeria, providing support in areas like development aid, security, and trade. However, the Tinubu administration is mindful of the need to diversify Nigeria’s diplomatic and economic engagements to avoid over-reliance on any single partner.

In this context, strengthening ties with BRICS countries has become a strategic priority. Nigeria’s engagement with BRICS nations aligns with its desire to find alternative sources of investment and trade, as well as to participate in platforms that challenge Western-dominated global structures. By cultivating relationships with these countries.

The Tinubu administration aims to attract infrastructure investments, expand its markets, and leverage technological transfers, all of which can contribute to domestic economic growth. For example, China’s BRI has provided Nigeria with opportunities to invest in infrastructure projects, such as railways (Lagos-Ibadan Standard Gauge Railway), energy projects (Zungeru Hydroelectric Power Station), and Special Economic Zones (Lekki Free Trade Zone). 

At the same time, Tinubu’s administration has sought to ensure that such partnerships remain balanced and mutually beneficial, avoiding the debt traps that have affected other African countries.

While Nigeria’s foreign policy ambitions under Tinubu’s leadership aim to elevate its global standing, these ambitions must be balanced with the pressing domestic challenges of insecurity, poverty, and economic inequality. The Tinubu administration faces the complex task of addressing these internal issues while projecting a stable and economically viable image to the international community.

In response to security challenges, including the ongoing fight against insurgency in the northeastern part of Nigeria and banditry in various parts of the country, Tinubu’s foreign policy emphasizes the importance of international security cooperation. Nigeria has continued to collaborate with countries like the United States in counterterrorism efforts, while also seeking support from regional allies through ECOWAS for addressing regional threats.

Moreover, Tinubu’s approach to foreign aid and financial assistance has been characterized by a desire to secure aid on favourable terms that align with Nigeria’s long-term developmental goals. His administration seeks to move away from dependency on aid by engendering sustainable economic partnerships. For example, in discussions with international financial institutions such as the IMF and the World Bank, the Tinubu government aims to negotiate terms that support Nigeria’s development without compromising its political sovereignty or burdening the nation with unsustainable debt.

Ultimately, Tinubu’s foreign policy is a multiprong strategy aimed at ensuring Nigeria’s economic resilience while amplifying its diplomatic voice in regional and global arenas. His administration’s efforts to diversify the economy, strengthen regional cooperation, and engage strategically with global powers are all aimed at positioning Nigeria as a leader in Africa and a relevant player in the shifting dynamics of global power. This approach reflects a broader understanding that in a post-pandemic world marked by economic uncertainties and geopolitical shifts, economic prosperity and political influence are closely intertwined.

Tinubu’s vision recognises that Nigeria’s economic growth must serve as a foundation for its diplomatic initiatives, allowing it to exercise greater influence over regional security matters, participate more actively in global trade discussions, and advocate for the interests of African nations on the global stage.

Saidu Ahmed is the special assistant, research and strategy, to the minister of information and national orientation