Tinubu: As the midterm approaches, By Bámidélé Adémólá-Olátéjú

President Bola Tinubu

…the Tinubu administration is an historical necessity for Nigeria. He should continue to take the path less traveled, but tread carefully. If the upward trend continues, the President could make the difference in the creation of a new Nigeria.

As a student of society and history, perhaps the best way to review the progress made so far by President Bola Ahmed Tinubu is to begin with Bob Dylan’s memorable song, “It’s Alright, Ma (I’m Only Bleeding)”, in his classic album, Bringing It All Back Home. In that song, Bob Dylan ushered in the tumultuous but defining 1960s. A clear lesson from the song is that if you are not actively embracing new experiences, including decline and growth in life, you are essentially stagnating or atrophying. As the midterm approaches, there will be a flurry of reviews of the path that the Tinubu administration has been treading, in order to renew and reinvigorate the national project.

However, before delving into the reviews, we must step back to recall where we were before May 2023. In addition to the economic strangulation leading up to the 2023 elections, the Buhari administration had maximised domestic and foreign loans, including about N20 trillion “Ways and Means” loans from the Central Bank under ousted Governor Godwin Emefiele. By the time Buhari left office in May 2023, the nation’s debt profile had exceeded N80 trillion. To be sure, part of the loans went into some capital projects, including roads and educational expansion, but many of the projects were not concluded and the new universities were deemed unnecessary, as existing ones lacked adequate funding and resources.

Nevertheless, the loans became necessary to keep the government running. By the end of the Buhari administration, it was realised that the country could not go on with fuel subsidy and he removed it from the budget as from 1 June, 2023, leaving his successor with no choice than to announce its removal. To complicate matters, it was discovered that the Emefiele-led Central Bank had multiple exchange rates for different categories of customers. The removal of fuel subsidy and the floating of the naira became essential tools for economic recovery and renewal.

Undoubtedly, the two policies brought untold hardships, especially at the onset. But despite the pains, real gains have been made. To quote Antonio Gramsci, “a shift has occurred in the territory of the discourse.” Because of the president’s bold steps, we have come to the understanding that what can set Nigeria on the path of growth and sustainable development is to create a society based on production and increased productivity. Yet, the focus on what the president has done wrong has prevented proper appraisal of what he has done right.

What has the president done right?

After obtaining less than forty per cent of the popular vote, President Tinubu has managed to form a cohesive government, with the opposition virtually in disarray, as some of their tactics, such as sponsored protests and calls for military takeover, have backfired. To be sure, the subsidy removal should have been done in phases, given the variegated distortions in our economy. For example, Chile phased out subsidy over eight years, while at the same time negotiating savvy international trade deals and ramping up on exports – as in export or perish. Nevertheless, having swallowed the bitter pills of both subsidy removal and flotation of the naira, President Tinubu has moved on to more socially stabilising projects.

Substantial gains have also been made recently in the area of security, with the raid of the armed forces on bandits across the North-West. There has also been a drastic reduction in the incidents of banditry and kidnapping across the country. More so, there is clearly evidence of more effective coordination among the security agencies. This has resulted in increased security measures to combat oil pipeline vandalism and oil theft.

In addition to the disbursement of huge sums to the states as palliatives and incentives for agricultural development, a students loan scheme was brought on board that indigent students are now taking advantage of. The Tax Reform Bill is equally a policy masterstroke. However, with eroded purchasing power parity, there should be no increase in VAT for at least four years. Otherwise, with mounting inventories, there may be massive lay-offs and this will have dire consequences.

Furthermore, the local government reforms portray President Tinubu as a federalist, who wants resources to reach the people who need them, by devolving financial power to the local governments. Although advocates of devolution of power may not see it that way, but devolution without financial backing is like substituting structure for functionality. The question remains, however, as to whether local government elections conducted by state governments have been producing the desired effects.

Substantial gains have also been made recently in the area of security, with the raid of the armed forces on bandits across the North-West. There has also been a drastic reduction in the incidents of banditry and kidnapping across the country. More so, there is clearly evidence of more effective coordination among the security agencies. This has resulted in increased security measures to combat oil pipeline vandalism and oil theft. However, more work is needed at the subnational level. Fortunately, President Tinubu aptly initiated a policy to have the state police and initially got a buy-in from the state governors.

More work is needed to make state police a reality. Nigeria currently has less than 400,000 police officers on the ground, many of who are assigned to protect the rich and powerful, while the few police posts at the local level are scantily staffed and poorly resourced. With a population half the size of Nigeria, Egypt has 1.7 million police officers. This may well account for Egypt’s stability, despite the upheavals the country has experienced since the 2011 revolution. There clearly is a correlation between boots on the ground and sustainable development. We can’t be secured without a strong, decentralised, motivated and capable police force at the subnational level. That is why the police is a decentralised institution worldwide.

The gains made so far have prepared the way for further progress. It is not surprising, therefore, that the nation’s greatest money earner, the Nigeria National Petroleum Corporation Limited (NNPCL) has taken full advantage. First, the long-awaited Port Harcourt refinery has started production. Second, the new Utapate oil field is adding volumes to the market. Consequently, as oil production output surpasses 1.5 million barrels per day, NNPCL has been able to meet its OPEC quota for the first time in many years. Already, fuel price is getting cheaper and the naira is gradually appreciating.

It is also high time technology is introduced into every aspect of government operations. A target of 2030 could be set to achieve a high degree of paperless operations in government services. Digitalisation will improve citizens’ interface with the government and also reduce corruption. After all, it is evident that the less the human interface, the more effective the processes of government.

Long before increased oil output by the NNPCL, the gains from fuel subsidy removal were being passed on to state governments, while the Federal Government has been able to embark on bold new capital projects, such as the Lagos-Calabar Coastal Highway.

The recent appointment of Dr Jumoke Oduwole as the minister of Trade and Industry is a signal that Nigeria is now ready to engage fully in international trade in which she has expertise. It is high time that Nigeria went back to the practice during the First Republic, when the Western Regional Government had Agent-generals or Trade Czars at the cabinet level as export promoters. For example, the Regional Government had MER Okorodudu, QC, and later Toye Coker as effective Agent Generals for the Western Region in the fifties and the sixties. Then the Western Region had warehouses in London, Rotterdam, and Atlanta. It may be necessary to appoint an export czar to remove or ease road blocks in order to make the country’s exports internationally competitive. The job content will include ensuring that the ports are made to work competitively, so that the country’s exports are internationally competitive.

Such a czar would need to collaborate with all the agencies involved with exports, such as the Ministry of Blue and Marine Economy, Customs, NAFDAC, Ports Authority, while the policing framework to make them more competitive is enabled. Similarly, the numerous road blocks should be controlled and mandated to facilitate the passage of trucks ferrying food and other goods.

It is also high time technology is introduced into every aspect of government operations. A target of 2030 could be set to achieve a high degree of paperless operations in government services. Digitalisation will improve citizens’ interface with the government and also reduce corruption. After all, it is evident that the less the human interface, the more effective the processes of government.

Finally, the Tinubu administration is an historical necessity for Nigeria. He should continue to take the path less traveled, but tread carefully. If the upward trend continues, the President could make the difference in the creation of a new Nigeria.

Bámidélé Adémólá-Olátéjú, former Commissioner for Information in Ondo State, is director of New Media and Corporate Communications for the All Progressives Congress. Twitter: @BamideleUpfront; Facebook: facebook.com/Bamidele. BAO