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In the race to qualify for the 2026 World Cup in the United States, Mexico and Canada, the odds are stacked against Nigeria as the Super Eagles head into the last two matches to round up the CAF qualifiers.
In Group C where the Super Eagles are quartered alongside the Bafana Bafana of South Africa, Cheeters of Benin Republic, Amavubi of Rwanda, as well as Crocodiles of Lesotho and Warriors of Zimbabwe, the hitherto group favourites, Nigeria, are with all but a any realistic hope of finishing top of the group.
Presently, Benin Republic leads the pack with fourteen points from eight matches. Their leadership of the group comes after three points and three goals were deducted from hitherto leaders of the group, South Africa. The Bafana Bafana are in second position with inferior goals aggregate while the Super Eagles trail in the third spot with eleven points, same as Amavubi of Rwanda, before Crocodiles of Lesotho and Warriors of Zimbabwe sit on the fifth and sixth spots respectively.
On Friday, Nigeria will restart what is a difficult process to make good of their precarious situation as the Crocodiles will host the Super Eagles in the all but the last game of the qualifiers. In their last game four days later, the Nigerian side will host group leaders, Benin Republic.
While winning the matches is not optional, analysts are of the view that scoring many goals is now the expectation as Cheetahs of Benin Republic are on top of the pool right now on account of superior goals aggregate. On eleven points, the Super Eagles presently have goals difference of +2.
Unfortunately, Nigeria is at a place where even winning the two remaining matches does not guarantee qualification as the fate of the former African champions now rests with the happenings in the other fixtures 
Like noted earlier, winning the remaining games against Lesotho and Benin remains important, especially the clash against the Cheetahs, which effectively cancels out one of the main contenders ahead of Nigeria. It will also help if the Super Eagles can achieve the victories with sufficient goals. 
Both the Cheetahs and Bafana Bafana have to play Rwanda. The Amavubi are on equal points with Nigeria; they also stand an excellent chance of qualifying and are, hence, potential banana skin fixtures for both South Africa and Benin Republic, which would favour the Super Eagles. 
Nigeria need South Africa to drop at least three points from a possible six. They need the Benin Republic to do the same, but with Gernot Rohr’s side, Nigeria still controls their destinies, as they have a date with their next door neighbour in Uyo. 
The likelier route to qualification still remains winning the group, hence the above analysis, as 17 points, the most Nigeria can collect, will most likely not be enough to finish as one of the best second-placed teams.
Benin Republic are on +4 goals aggregate, on the strength of which they are atop Group C. South Africa are on +3 while Nigeria are on +2 with three points less than the two. 
According to Victor Ikpeba, while speaking on Monday Night Football on SuoerSports, the onus is on Nigeria to first do their own job against Lesotho and Benin Republic.
“Qualification is not in our hand; it’s long gone out of our hand but they should win their two remaining matches and ensure they win well.
“Perhaps it will eventually come down to goals difference,” he said.
George Aluo, a member of the NFF and  Chairman of the Nigeria national League (NNL), said the sanction of South Africa is a breather for the Super Eagles and has opened up the chance for the former African champions. He viewed the three points taken from South Africa as a boost for Nigeria to push towards qualification.
“The decision has made the group wide open,” Aluo remarked, highlighting Rwanda’s potential as a dark horse in this race.
He went on to emphasise the importance of the upcoming match between Rwanda and Benin, suggesting that the outcomes of the game could dramatically alter the standings.
“If Rwanda wins that match and we triumph over Lesotho, the dynamics of the competition will change completely. All four countries—Nigeria, South Africa, Benin, and Rwanda—are very much in the hunt for qualification, and I expect Rwanda to be competitive against South Africa if they manage to defeat Benin at home.”
Like Aluo rightly pointed out, the key match in the match-day nine fixtures is the game between Rwanda and Benin Republic in Kigali. Nigeria will hope that Rwanda will hold their own against South Africa in Bloemfontein in the last match-day but that will only happen if the Amavubi still have something to fight for.
Put differently, a win for the Amavubi against Benin will take their points haul to 14 heading into the last game against the Bafana Bafana, realising that a win for them against the former apartheid enclave at the Free State Stars Stadium in Bloemfontein in the last day will mean jumping over their hosts. But should the Amavubi lose or draw their next game in Kigali against the Cheetahs, whatever is left of them in terms of morale heading into the last lap of the qualifiers in South Africa would have died.
To analysts, this is where the Nigeria Football Federation (NFF) must show that they understand the other side of the game apart from what happens on the field. This is not talking about match fixing but is there any way the Glass House could also prop up the Amavubi to get the result in the match between their neighbours and Rwanda. If Rwanda can defeat Benin Republic next week, then they can fancy their chances in Bloemfontein against South Africa — where a beating South Africa will help Super Eagles to qualify if they win their own two remaining matches. 
Such development where a supposedly an underdog denies heavyweights qualification in the latter’s ground has happened before.
In the qualifiers for the last World Cup, North Macedonia caused one of the greatest upsets in world football after they defeated Italy in Rome to ensure the Azzuris never made it to the Mundial.
Then European champions, Italy were stunned by North Macedonia in their play-off in Palermo.
Aleksandar Trajkovski of North Macedonia scored the sensational winner from outside the area in Palermo, Italy.
The goal sparked wild celebrations on the North Macedonia bench, while Italy’s players and coaching staff dropped to their knees in front of their home fans.
The victory meant Italy failed to qualify for a second consecutive World Cup.
So with the hope that Nigeria will not only win Lesotho at the Peter Mokaba Stadium in South Africa, but will win well in the match, all eyes will be focused on Kigali where Nigerians will pray that Amavubi overcome the Cheetahs before the decisive last round of games
Barrister Paul Edeh, the chairman of Benue State Football Association,has challenged the Super Eagles to take advantage of the opportunity in the points deduction from South Africa, saying the development is a blessing in disguise.
“This ruling is a blessing in disguise for Nigeria,” Edeh said. 
“It gives us a huge opportunity to qualify, but opportunities don’t mean anything unless you make use of them. 
“The Super Eagles must now focus on their two remaining matches and make sure they collect maximum points.”
He explained that relying on other teams’ misfortunes without improving Nigeria’s own performance would be a mistake. 
“We cannot relax simply because South Africa has lost points. If we fail to win our games, it will mean nothing. This is the time for the team to rise up and take control of its own destiny.”
Edeh also called on the Nigeria Football Federation to ensure smooth preparations for the national team, saying that every detail matters when qualification is on the line. 
“We must make sure the players are motivated, logistics are handled properly, and the coaches are supported fully. In football, little things make a big difference. If we get it right, Nigeria will not miss out.
“This is a moment of opportunity. If the players give their best and Nigerians support them, there is no reason we cannot take advantage and qualify,” he said.
However, former international, Dimeji Lawal, is a bit pessimistic about the situation, questioning if the national team could win all their remaining matches to have any chance.
“I don’t get excited about boardroom points because one thing is to get three points taken away from South Africa, and another thing is for us to win our remaining games.
“I knew from the beginning that FIFA would not compromise its rules. When South Africa made that mistake, I was certain they would forfeit those three points and three goals.
“The bottom line is, can we win our last two games? That’s the crucial part of it. I’m not so excited about South Africa losing points.
“What I am looking forward to is how we can prepare ourselves in a manner that guarantees victories in the next two matches,” the 54-year-old concluded.