The Global Soft Power Index in the Trump era, By Oluwaseun Tella

Returning to the global arena, the growing trend of states adopting a “might makes right” approach in international relations is evident in conflicts such as the Israel-Palestine crisis, the Russia-Ukraine war, and Trump’s latest hard power manoeuvres. This raises concerns about the relevance of soft power in contemporary international politics. However, the importance of interdependence, multilateralism, and collective action in addressing global challenges — such as poverty, climate change, and terrorism — suggests that soft power remains indispensable.

The inauguration of Donald Trump as the 47th president of the United States in January has ushered in not only a renewed era of “America First” foreign policy but also a period marked by a “might makes right” approach. His preference for hard power — coercion over attraction — is evident. This is reflected in his trade war with China, the imposition of tariffs on Canada and Mexico, threats directed at Greenland, and the freezing of development assistance, particularly USAID. Moreover, Trump has found an ally in Elon Musk, the world’s richest man and a South African-American, who now serves in a nebulous capacity as a “special government employee.” This new era of coercion bears similarities to the post-9/11 foreign policy under President George W Bush. While Trump has not launched military interventions, akin to those in Iraq or Afghanistan, his stance on the Israel-Palestine conflict — particularly efforts to displace Palestinians from Gaza — suggests a similarly aggressive posture. A key question arises: What impact will this have on US soft power? There are already indications of potential decline, though the extent will depend on how much the administration prioritises hard power over soft power in its international engagements. 

Last week, I attended the 2025 edition of the Global Soft Power Summit, an annual event organised by Brand Finance, a leading brand valuation consultancy. The keynote speaker was former US Secretary of State John Kerry. This summit explores the role of soft power in international relations and business, and each year it unveils the Global Soft Power Index, ranking states on the basis of their soft power influence. The 2025 edition evaluated all 193 United Nations (UN) member states, drawing on data from a global sample of over 170,000 respondents across more than 100 markets.

One of the most notable findings from the survey is that the US has retained its position as the top-ranked soft power state, as it was in the 2024 edition. However, given the new administration’s “America First” stance and its overt reliance on hard power, it would not be surprising if Washington loses its top ranking in 2026. This scenario evokes a sense of déjà vu, reminiscent of Trump’s first term, during which his divisive rhetoric and retreat from global affairs — such as the withdrawal from the 2016 Paris Agreement and the 2015 Iran nuclear deal, along with a trade war with China — diminished US soft power. Consequently, in 2019, France overtook the US as the leading soft power state in Portland’s Soft Power 30 Index. While Trump’s policies contributed to Washington’s soft power decline, President Emmanuel Macron’s pro-integration and cooperative approach helped elevate France’s global standing.

If the US were to lose its first-place ranking in the 2026 Global Soft Power Index, it would be intriguing to see which country might replace it, especially since China has now risen to second place, overtaking the United Kingdom (UK). Indeed, the only changes in the 2025 top 10 rankings involve the second and third positions, with Japan, Germany, France, Canada, Switzerland, Italy, and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) maintaining their 2024 rankings from fourth to tenth, respectively.

Nigeria’s soft power assets include its rich cultural exports — Nollywood, Afrobeats, fashion, and the influence of its diaspora — as well as its multinational corporations and mega churches. Additionally, Nigeria’s foreign of democracy promotion, peace diplomacy, and development assistance, underpinned by its active participation in multilateral institutions and global governance.

Shifting focus to Africa, Egypt, South Africa, Morocco, Nigeria, and Algeria are the highest-ranked African states in the index. While Morocco’s position remains unchanged and Algeria has slipped slightly, the other three states have seen modest improvements compared to their 2024 rankings. Given that Africa is often sidelined in soft power discussions due to prevailing Afropessimism, it is encouraging to see African countries competing on the global stage, despite some limitations of the index, which may not fully capture African sources of soft power, such as the philosophies of Ubuntu and Harambee.

It is essential to highlight some of the sources of these African states’ soft power. Egypt derives its influence from its Pharaonic heritage, the cultural contributions of its skilled workforce, the global appeal of Mohamed Salah, its distinctive brand of Pan-Arabism, and active diplomatic engagement. South Africa’s soft power is rooted in its entertainment industry, major sporting events, and educational exchanges, along with its commitment to peace diplomacy and democracy promotion. Furthermore, non-state actors such as Civil Society Organisations (CSOs), multinational corporations (MNCs), and universities contribute significantly to its soft power. Nigeria’s soft power assets include its rich cultural exports — Nollywood, Afrobeats, fashion, and the influence of its diaspora — as well as its multinational corporations and mega churches. Additionally, Nigeria’s foreign of democracy promotion, peace diplomacy, and development assistance, underpinned by its active participation in multilateral institutions and global governance.

Returning to the global arena, the growing trend of states adopting a “might makes right” approach in international relations is evident in conflicts such as the Israel-Palestine crisis, the Russia-Ukraine war, and Trump’s latest hard power manoeuvres. This raises concerns about the relevance of soft power in contemporary international politics. However, the importance of interdependence, multilateralism, and collective action in addressing global challenges — such as poverty, climate change, and terrorism — suggests that soft power remains indispensable.

Oluwaseun Tella is Head of the Future of Diplomacy at the University of Johannesburg’s Institute for the Future of Knowledge in South Africa.