A new simulation by the Aceodds supercomputer has delivered its latest forecast for the 2025-26 Premier League season, and the projections make grim reading for Chelsea while strongly backing Arsenal to finish the job.

The Blues’ 1-1 draw with Arsenal at Stamford Bridge, despite Moises Caicedo’s first-half red card, has significantly dented their title prospects.

Trevoh Chalobah gave Chelsea the lead with a second-half header, but Mikel Merino’s equaliser ensured Arsenal preserved their five-point cushion at the top.

Manchester City’s 3-2 win over Leeds has now pushed them above Chelsea into second, tightening the pressure on Mikel Arteta’s rivals.

But the numbers still overwhelmingly favour the league leaders.

Arsenal firm favourites for the title

According to the supercomputer, Arsenal have a commanding 78.4% chance of lifting the Premier League trophy. The projected table suggests Arteta’s side could finish nine points clear by May.

Manchester City remain the closest challengers, but even Pep Guardiola’s side are given only a 12.4% chance of reclaiming the crown.

Chelsea fall behind in the race

Chelsea’s title hopes have taken a severe hit, with the model handing them just a 2.7% chance of winning the league. Despite their strong early-season form, the projection places them fourth in the final standings.

Liverpool, struggling for consistency under Arne Slot, are still backed to finish third, two points behind City.

Every other club in the league is given 0.1% or less in title probability, underlining how firmly the algorithm sees the top of the table being controlled by Arsenal and City.

Projected top half

1. Arsenal

2. Manchester City

3. Liverpool

4. Chelsea

5. Manchester United

6. Brighton

7. Newcastle

8. Crystal Palace

9. Aston Villa

10. Bournemouth

Tottenham, under new manager Thomas Frank, are forecast to finish 11th, marking another bottom-half campaign.

Predictions for the bottom half

Brentford, Everton, Fulham and Nottingham Forest are all tipped for mid-table finishes.
Sunderland, currently punching above their weight in sixth, are predicted to slide sharply down the table to 16th.

The survival battle appears tight, with West Ham projected to escape relegation by just one point ahead of Leeds. Burnley and Wolves are expected to join Leeds in the bottom three and drop to the Championship.