3 weeks ago
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Africa’s leading commodities player, AFEX, has predicted price stabilisation for staple grain commodities like maize, soybean, paddy rice, and sorghum amid record food inflation in Nigeria.
This was revealed in the 2025 Outlook and animal communities report and index methodology which was launched recently.
The report, which tracks the price and production performance of global and regional markets, alongside projections for the year ahead, provides valuable insights into the agricultural value chain, highlighting challenges and opportunities inherent in the market while providing an accurate forecast that potentially steers price and volumes for the coming season.
In Nigeria, the economy is grappling with record-high inflation, which reached 34.8 percent in December 2024, and a volatile exchange rate, coupled with challenges in the agricultural sector such as climate change, rising input costs, and low productivity.
“In 2024, we witnessed commodity prices rise by 4 percent, compared to 2023, which saw a 7 percent decline in prices.
“Where the price decline in 2023 was a direct consequence of a 9 percent drop in food prices, and a 5 percent decline in raw materials, prices in 2024 witnessed an 8 percent decline in food prices driven by an 11 percent drop in oils and meals prices and a significant 16 per cent decrease in grain prices”, the report revealed.
However, a sharp 64 percent increase in beverage prices and a 5 percent rise in raw material costs eventually tilted prices higher.
Global production for maize, a staple grain commodity, reached a record-breaking 1.13 billion metric tons in 2024, reflecting a 6 percent year-on-year increase.
This output puts downward pressure on maize prices, which fell by 25 percent year-on-year.
In contrast, maize prices in Nigeria rose by 92 percent yearon-year and closed the year at approximately N660,000 per metric ton, with its highest peak in July when prices hit N908,000 per metric ton.
The report projects that local prices are expected to moderate on the back of the government’s implementation of a 150-day import duty on maize, which will up supply and eventually ease pressure on prices.
Paddy rice, a staple consumption commodity, witnessed price growth of 6 percent owing to India’s export restrictions, seasonal supply tightness, and the adverse impacts of El Niño on global rice production.
However, price eased towards the end of the year as India lifted its ban on rice exportation.
The report projects that domestic paddy rice prices are expected to rise by approximately 50 percent year-on-year in 2025, despite the imposition of the 150-day import waiver.
Speaking at the event, Akinyinka Akintunde, President/CEO of AFEX Nigeria, said, “As we confront record food inflation and macroeconomic pressures, this report provides critical insights to stabilise Nigeria’s agricultural value chain.
“By identifying pathways to mitigate climate risks, optimise input costs, and enhance productivity, it lays a foundation for resolving food insecurity and fostering sustainable growth in the sector”.
The event also featured the unveiling of the AFEX Commodities Index and the AFEX Export Index methodology, key indices that provide investors and market stakeholders with real-time prices of commodities and the export market.
Speaking on the updates, Oluwafunto Olasemo, Chief Operating Offer, AFEX Commodities Exchange, said, “These updates represent our unwavering commitment to driving much-needed technology innovation that contributes to efficient value chains while increasing transparency and growth in Nigeria’s commodities ecosystem.
“With these tools, we are empowering stakeholders to make better-informed decisions which ultimately unlocks new opportunities for commodities trading and investment”.
As Nigerians continue to battle with increases in food prices, stakeholders within the agriculture sector need to prioritise concerted efforts aimed at driving innovation within the value chain.
The FAO predicts that an additional 33.1 million people will face food insecurity in 2025, and thus the imperative for solving production, processing and supply chain inefficiencies becomes clearer.
The report is a single step in the direction of resolution, however policy coordination as well as private sector engagement, especially within the capital market as a catalyst for driving investment in agriculture is needed.
English (US) ·