The Christian genocide claim by some unpatriotic lot has revealed so much about the complex insecurity industry in Nigeria. It has laid bare the not so hidden truth that Nigeria’s insecurity has since been an industry that’s not only a money mill for some, but also a political tool for others, using it as a diabolical instrument of political bargain and at the end, economic gain. The political will to fight the monster has continued to wane over the years, and the situation has continued to deteriorate. Defence budgets are the highest the world over, and as security votes remain unaudited; insecurity is the perfect avenue for illicit and uncensored government’s spending. Insecurity or defence spending has become another ‘subsidy fraud’ and the massive spending on insecurity no longer matches the success rate or success story of the war. The system: the security architecture, the politics, and the establishment are wholly complicit in the quagmire we have found ourselves. There may be lesser bombings or deaths compared to the pre-2015 era of insecurity, but as a whole, we are not safe and no-one is particularly safe. It can happen to anyone directly or indirectly.
The political gamers have boxed all of us into a corner, and humanity, including Nigerians, has now been awoken to the simple fact that there is no religious war going on in our country. Nigerians and American President Donald Trump are awake to the fact that a war sustained by very sinister and selfish motives of warring groups cloaked in deceitful religious and secessionist garments is eating Nigeria alive and the solution may no longer be an entirely domestic affair. Just as the sponsors and abettors of the insecurity ravaging Nigeria are somewhat foreign, the solutions are definitely foreign, starting with the withdrawal of foreign support and interests in certain war theatres across the country. Humanitarian services to terrorists in the North have sustained the war to a large extent. Trump’s DOGE unveiled the vile perpetrated by USAID in war torn developing countries. Governor Umar Zulum of Borno state and former humanitarian minister Sadiya Farouk cried foul and sent NGOs packing from Maiduguri, as the lines were blurred between humanitarian services and “abetting terrorism services”. So, the U.S and other foreign interests have to come clean about fighting insecurity in Nigeria. If they blame China and claim Chinese mining activities form part of the mining related and mining sponsored terrorism in Nigeria, then they must also look at their humanitarian activities and how they are also encouraging a continued assault by terrorism in our land. The Trump advice on Nigeria may be a veiled declaration of war with China over Nigeria’s mineral wealth. The U.S is awake to the threats of China’s belt and road initiative which infrastructural strategy is to improve trade connectivity between Asia, Africa, Europe and beyond. The snag for Trump and the U.S’s proposed foray into Nigeria is our complex landscape which cannot be consumed by their usual gestapo approach. It seems the global reproach to their attempt has made them realise that the best way into Nigeria is through a symbiotic relationship, not a parasitic one.
What we know as insecurity in Nigeria, predominantly in the North, was congregated mostly by unregulated mining in the North and this has caused us so much trouble. Dr. Alake’s work in the Solid Minerals Ministry where there’s a standardisation and regulation of mining is making headways and the reforms must be institutionalised and given constitutional backing, the way oil is highly regulated. Governor Inuwa Yahaya’s northern governors’ security summit communique which has spoken about a stay of mining activities, and a security fund, is another underliner of the root and truth about our insecurity situation. These two fora: Dr. Alake’s reforms, and the Northern Governors security summit if fully embraced will go a long way in stemming banditry. Another is the folklore of grazing reserves and pathways to avert farmer/ herder clashes. Should ranching and grazing reserves come to fruition, a lot of disaster will be averted. As always the political will to implement government’s policies, and not formulation, is the key to the success of this war. Non-kinetic approaches end wars while kinetic approaches sustain them, as the industries around war thrive on their existence.
The NSA’s office’s move to counter the genocide propaganda at the U.S Congress was great statecraftship, exploring diplomatic means to absolve the federal government of any genocidal tendencies. The follow up with the Secretary of War’s office was fine military strategy, and Ribadu and Hegseth’s informed security analysis of Nigeria’s security challenges has given birth to a U.S/Nigeria Joint Security Working Group. It is not a totally new collaboration with the U.S in recent times as the President Tinubu administration has made purchases of military hardware of over $1 billion from the U.S. President Trump had also approved the sale of Tucano fighter jets to Nigeria previously, and not too long ago authorised their full armament. What remains to be seen is the deployment of modern surveillance technologies which are very vital for the successful prosecution of this war. With the new working group it seems that the siting of a U.S military base is around the corner, even if not on the earlier envisaged scale. Nigeria is a mineral darling and talking oil is just scratching the surface of our wealth. The world’s brows have been raised by new technologies and the discoveries of minerals to drive them had been allowed to lie fallow before now. These discoveries have world super powers scampering over developing countries for their own survival, re-development, and advancement.
Recent development in Nigeria’s security architecture has made me quite optimistic over President Tinubu’s political will to fight insecurity. First of all, Tinubu is a revenue man and insecurity hampers revenue. His work for Mobil Oil UK and later Lagos state governor has contributed to his acclaim for creating and developing wealth. Insecurity is his worst enemy and more so as a president seeking a second term. He will definitely face it squarely. His recent tax reforms can only thrive in a safe environment and insecurity will definitely be counterproductive to the reforms and the wealth to be created. The weather has to be conducive. So, the removal of service chiefs and the appointment of new ones reek of intent to establish a stable and safe environment for good governance to thrive. The defence minister has had to make way for hands more positioned to the tasks at hand. General CG Musa is the new defence minister and obviously his reappointment is a curious case of both political and military prudence. Heading defence ministry and strategy by a Christian from the North, just as the new APC chairman; is almost halving the genocide claim problem. And then, of course, the ministry definitely needs militarily experienced hands. CG Musa has proven over the past two decades that he is a great soldier who pushes the kinetic approach quite well. His appointment has been widely applauded and I am positive that the bandits will hear more ‘wee’!
What impresses me about Mr. President is his penchant for correcting anomalies and a hands-on approach to issues of governance. Even if his subordinates make mistakes or take missteps, he is quick and proactive and isn’t afraid to make the bold decisions and take the correct steps. Appointments have been reversed, announcements cancelled, and policies halted or changed – sometimes even suspended. President Tinubu accepts the due diligence of public opinion which shapes governance towards fitting finely on public space. The late President Buhari applauded President Tinubu for taking hard decisions and having hard-line stances on governance issues which he wasn’t able to make because he felt too much pity for the masses, and therefore took the less prudent way to solve problems. This one? He is not afraid to take the right decisions and if your ox is gored, sorry!
