Predicting F1's 2025 running order after Bahrain preseason testing

SAKHIR, Bahrain -- Testing lap time data only ever provides a murky picture of relative performance. Adding 10 kilograms of fuel to a car equates to a lap time increase of roughly 0.3 seconds, meaning variations in fuel levels can make a fast car look average or an average car look very quick. Even race simulations, which provide the most accurate data as they require each team to use comparable fuel loads, can be skewed by time of day, tyre strategy and engine settings.

Nevertheless, ESPN is parsing through the data and talking with those up and down the pit lane at the Bahrain International Circuit to come up with a predicted running order now that Formula 1's three-day preseason test is complete. We've averaged lap times over race simulations to provide long-run numbers for comparison.

Take this list with a pinch of salt, though. The data is based on three days of cold, occasionally wet, and very blustery running in the Bahrain. The mix of corner types, long straights and a very rough track surface, rewards good traction, braking stability and low rear-tyre degradation, whereas Albert Park, which will host the opening race in two weeks' time, is a very different circuit that presents very different challenges.

10. Sauber

2024 constructors' standing: 10th
Fastest lap: 1:31.057 (Gabriel Bortoleto)
Laps completed: 354

What the data says: On both single-lap and long-run performance, Sauber appeared to be at the back of the pack. Its two drivers finished the test with a best lap in the 1:31s (the fastest times were in the low 1:29s), but we know all too well how much fuel loads can impact those numbers. More concerning for Sauber was Bortoleto's Thursday race sim, which left him 1.6 seconds per lap off the benchmark set by Lando Norris and 0.4 seconds off the pace of the driver he beat to the F2 title last year, Isack Hadjar.

The picture from the paddock: There is little focus on the here and now at Sauber, with the looming presence of Audi in the background. Traditionally, Sauber has felt like an oddity -- for many years, it's just been there, on the grid but rarely even remotely competitive -- and this preseason has felt little different. With Audi ready to take over for 2026, this year feels like a write-off already, although the team is not panicked about that either. Rivals all expect F1's green and black car to be at the rear of the field come March 16.

Where the team stands: Someone has to be last, and Sauber looks to be in that position heading into the year. There's little to be excited about for the Swiss-based team in the last year it carries Peter Sauber's name into an F1 season -- perhaps fittingly, for a squad that has so regularly underachieved.

9. Racing Bulls

2024 constructors' standing: 8th
Fastest lap: 1:30.497 (Yuki Tsunoda)
Laps completed: 454

What the data says: If the all-white cars are the ninth fastest in Australia, they will likely be less than a couple of tenths off the best laps of the midfield. There was nothing worrying about the Racing Bulls' test -- they had the third-highest lap count and sensible lap times -- but there was very little that stood out. Tsunoda and Hadjar were 14th and 15th fastest overall, while Hadjar's race simulation from Thursday suggests his average lap times were only 0.2 seconds off Jack Doohan's in the Alpine.

The picture from the paddock: Has anyone ever been excited about Red Bull's junior team during a preseason test? It's hard to think of any recent examples. The team's beautiful livery will be eye-catching all year, but it might be hard to spot in the back of the picture as the grid roars down to Turn 1 at Albert Park.

Where the team stands: The Racing Bulls look exactly where they tend to be, in the lower reaches of the order. Tsunoda continues to be a bright spot, but even he may struggle to drag this car up the order. The team will hope upgrades come early and successfully.

8. Aston Martin

2024 constructors' standing: 5th
Fastest lap: 1:30.229 (Lance Stroll)
Laps completed: 306

What the data says: With the second-fewest laps by the end of the test and no race simulations to analyse, Aston Martin's test performance is something of an enigma. Raw lap time wasn't too bad -- Stroll was tenth fastest over the three days -- but it's hard to find reliable references to bounce his lap time off. A best-case scenario might see the team at the front of the midfield, but the Aston Martin's tendency to focus on experiments and test items over the three days suggest the package might not be where they want it ahead of the first race.

The picture from the paddock: Many in the paddock believe Aston Martin has dropped down the order like a stone. Fernando Alonso dubbed Aston "the team of the future" last year, new star designer Adrian Newey arrives on Monday, nearly 250 new staff members joined in 2024 and the team is firmly looking to the next regulation cycle. Several team members told ESPN the likelihood of Aston Martin making any significant investments in its 2025 challenger depends on how strongly it starts. While everyone has an eye on next year, Aston Martin seems like the biggest case of short-term pain for long-term gain.

Where the team stands: The team's focus over the winter was on building a more driveable car, which it seems to have succeeded in doing. Even with a car that's more predictable, though, the underlying performance appears to be lacking and Aston Martin's initial focus will likely be on getting to the front of the midfield rather than troubling the top four.

7. Haas

2024 constructors' standing: 7th
Fastest lap: 1:30.728 (Esteban Ocon)
Laps completed: 457

What the data says: As was the case this time last year, the Haas seemed to spend most of the test laden with fuel, meaning it was routinely several seconds off the pace. In 2024, that led many to believe the team would be stuck at the back of the field, only for it to surprise everyone and finish the season with the fifth-fastest car. Ignore the fastest laps, which left Ocon 16th and Oliver Bearman 20th, and instead focus on Ocon's race sim on the final day. Over a seemingly solid race distance, he finished less than a second off Oscar Piastri and, after joining the dots in the raw data, slightly ahead of Alpine's pace and clear of the Williams.

The picture from the paddock: A solid, unspectacular test for Haas, but very much on brand for the American outfit and exactly how team boss Ayao Komatsu wanted it. The team appears very happy with the shape it's in going to Melbourne; there were some tiny delays, but nothing out of the ordinary for testing. A few midfield rivals were impressed at how Haas looked across the three days. The squad completed everything it needed to and feels confident it's in a similar position to last year, in that it should be able to capitalise on drama ahead for the odd points-scoring weekend.

Where the team stands: Under Komatsu, Haas has excelled at flying under the radar. More of the same seems possible this year, although its all-new driver lineup and overhauled trackside engineering team may take a number of races to gel. Nevertheless, testing went well.

6. Williams

2024 constructors' standing: 9th
Fastest lap: 1:29.348 (Carlos Sainz)
Laps completed: 395

What the data says: While it's true that fastest laps count for nothing in testing, a 1:29.348 at the Bahrain International Circuit is a solid lap regardless of the circumstances. For context, Sainz's test-topping time on Thursday was 0.873 seconds faster than Williams' best lap in qualifying at the same circuit last year. There's a suspicion that the time was set on a relatively light fuel load, but you still need the car working well to be able to achieve a lap time in that ballpark. Alex Albon backed up Sainz's lap with the third-fastest time on Friday, but his race sim appeared to go awry and he ended up 1.5 seconds off the pace of Piastri's benchmark long run on Friday.

The picture from the paddock: It's been a rough couple of years for Williams, but this was a feel-good start to the year, albeit one with the usual caveats of testing. There's a cautiously optimistic feeling within the team that it has jumped into the midfield. Cynics might say Sainz's headline-grabbing time on Day 2 and Albon's strong run towards the end of Day 3 were low-fuel efforts to impress new sponsors, but Williams has not felt this good about an upcoming F1 season for a long time.

Where the team stands: Williams has made big changes behind the scenes in the past 12 months and it might be about to reap the rewards. The team's sights are still set firmly on 2026, but a step up the midfield in 2025 would be very welcome and now looks increasingly realistic.

5. Alpine

2024 constructors' standing: 6th
Fastest lap: 1:30.040 (Pierre Gasly)
Laps completed: 405

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1:09

Five things from F1 preseason testing Day 1

A power cut, rain in the desert and Lewis Hamilton's Ferrari debut headlined Day 1 of F1 preseason testing in Bahrain.

What the data says: There were positive noises coming from Alpine over the course of the test, which were backed up by competitive lap times from Gasly on Friday afternoon. He briefly led the media centre timing screens before George Russell, Max Verstappen, Albon and Piastri all made the most of improving conditions to go faster in the final hours. The difference in Alpine's performance to this time last year is night and day, and the times from Doohan's slightly messy race sim on Thursday suggest Alpine should be near the front of the midfield when racing gets underway in Australia.

The picture from the paddock: The team had a solid week and was not worried by Sainz's quick times late on Thursday and Friday, although a team member did identify Williams as its closest rival going to Melbourne. The feeling within the garage is good, but there might be a cap on expectations; most in the paddock believe Alpine's relative gap to the leading cluster of four is about the same as it was last year.

Where the team stands: What a difference 12 months can make. After a disastrous preseason in 2024, Alpine looks like the clear "best of the rest" behind the lead quartet. Given that there's eight cars ahead, points-paying positions will be limited, but Alpine appears to go into the year with the best chance at regularly picking up the scraps in the early going.

4. Red Bull

2024 constructors' standing: 3rd
Fastest lap: 1:29.566 (Verstappen)
Laps completed: 304

What the data says: With the fewest laps of any team and spins for both Verstappen and Liam Lawson, there are concerns that Red Bull's downward trajectory has continued into another year. Verstappen's fastest lap on Friday (just 0.2 seconds off the fastest of the week) suggests the car is far from being a dud, but then we know how much Red Bull had to rely on the Dutchman's brilliance to secure the drivers' title last year. The only race simulation came on Thursday morning (meaning the conditions were not comparable with those of Ferrari, McLaren and Mercedes) and was a messy affair with Lawson behind the wheel. The raw data suggests Lawson was 0.9 seconds per lap off the race simulation of Norris later the same day, but we'd be amazed if that's the case in Australia.

The picture from the paddock: A genuinely hard one to make sense of. Teams pointed to the difference in data from Verstappen and Lawson; a rival team member joked to the ESPN that the car looked like a world beater at the hands of one, and fourth when piloted by the other. That might be harsh on Lawson, but there is a feeling that the RB21 might not be the quickest, but Verstappen's prodigious talent might still be able to coax some early wins out of it. Given how bad its predecessor was at points last year, Red Bull seems relieved to at least be in the mix.

Where the team stands: Although Red Bull's test was not perfect, it was far from a reason to panic. It seems the undesirable traits in the car's DNA refused to be washed out over the winter, but there's still plenty of good bits that will keep it fighting among the top four teams. Perhaps the biggest concern is for Lawson, who suffered from limited mileage in testing and will have to learn quickly to keep up with Verstappen.

3. Mercedes

2024 constructors' standing: 4th
Fastest lap: 1:29.545 (Russell)
Laps completed: 458

What the data says: There were signs of the Mercedes of old in Bahrain as Russell finished the final day on top and the W16 racked up more laps than any other car over the three days. But while the team has undoubtedly made progress over the winter, it would be premature to assume it's suddenly back in the title hunt. Andrea Kimi Antonelli's race sim was a match for Charles Leclerc's on Thursday -- impressive when you consider his rookie status -- while his gap to race-sim-pace-setter Norris (roughly 0.3 seconds) was the same as Russell's gap to Piastri over a race sim on the final day. The big question is whether Bahrain's unseasonably cold conditions were playing to the strengths of the Mercedes, as they did throughout 2024 when the W15 excelled whenever the temperature dropped (think Silverstone, Belgium and Las Vegas).

The picture from the paddock: Russell sounded happy with the car he has, having said he knew immediately in recent seasons the team had not built a competitive challenger. Mercedes kept its head down and got on with the test, and goes to Australia with a renewed spring in its step. The team to watch at the front.

Where the team stands: You can understand why Mercedes might view a successful preseason with some trepidation, given its struggles under the current rules cycle, but things look genuinely encouraging. Russell may finally have a car to challenge more regularly, while exciting Antonelli will be must-see TV all year.

2. Ferrari

2024 constructors' standing: 2nd
Fastest lap: 1:29.379 (Lewis Hamilton)
Laps completed: 382

What the data says: Hamilton and Leclerc both set times that would have secured second on the grid at last year's Bahrain Grand Prix -- and most likely did so while carrying a hefty fuel load in the Ferrari's tank. Over a race simulation on Thursday, Leclerc was roughly 0.3 seconds off that of Norris, but most of that time difference came in the final stint when Norris was on the more resilient C1 compound and Leclerc had opted for the more fragile C2. The conditions were also cooler than expected, which McLaren team principal Andrea Stella believed played to the strengths of his car over the Ferrari. Ferrari boss Frédéric Vasseur believes there is more to come from the SF-25, which might have it right alongside the McLaren at the front of the grid in Melbourne.

The picture from the paddock: Given weeks of hype and excitement about Hamilton's arrival, Ferrari's test seemed a bit like a sideshow to the main event. As has become the norm under Vasseur, the mood has been calm, even with chairman John Elkann arriving in the paddock midway through the test. Most rivals had Ferrari anywhere from second to fourth, but there's no panic. Ferrari knows it has a competitive package and is clearly buzzing about having the strongest driver lineup it has boasted in recent memory.

Where the team stands: Hamilton will not start his Ferrari career with a class-leading car, but he will have competitive machinery from the off. He and Leclerc may have hoped Ferrari would have come out of testing level with or ahead of McLaren, given how last year finished, but this is still a strong start. Buckle up, it could be quite a season.

1. McLaren

2024 constructors' standing: 1st
Fastest lap: 1:29.940 (Piastri)
Laps completed: 381

What the data says: McLaren's test was a reminder of why headline lap times are so misleading during preseason. Based purely on the fastest laps over the three days, Piastri was eighth fastest and bookmaker's favourite Norris was 13th. Averaging the lap times from the race sims of the two (Piastri on Friday and Norris on Thursday), though, told a very different story. On both days, the papaya cars were 0.3 seconds clear of their nearest rivals -- the equivalent of winning the Bahrain Grand Prix by 17 seconds. There are enough variables at play to believe it won't be that one sided come the first race in Australia, but around the Bahrain circuit over the past three days, the MCL39 has been the class of the field.

The picture from the paddock: It's hard to ignore the confidence oozing from everyone in McLaren's papaya kits. Bahrain has often been a site of tension and drama, but not this year. The team is publicly being very coy about its chances, but it's clear that's a case of managing expectations. If McLaren's body language isn't enough, then how about this? Rival teams unanimously think the papaya-coloured team is the one to beat going into Melbourne.

Where the team stands: Don't be fooled: This isn't a Red Bull 2023 scenario, and an upgrade from a rival or a minor error in qualifying could be enough for McLaren to slip from the front of the grid in Melbourne. But the team's upward trajectory, which started midway through the 2023 season and accelerated through 2024, appears set to continue into 2025. The papaya outfit rightly deserve its tag of "favourite," but it's still far from a safe bet.