Peter Obi in PDP’S defeat of 2023

The main argument of Mr Peter Obi’s camp in the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) before he left for Labour Party (LP) was the issue of zoning or rotational presidency. It is apt to state that there is a clear clause on zoning in the PDP’s constitution. It was on this basis that Obi’s camp made a strong case for the PDP’s presidential ticket for 2023 elections to be zoned to the southern part of the country. They argued that the provision in the party’s constitution is clear and in line with the principles of justice, equity, and fairness.

Obi’s camp felt very strongly that the 2023 PDP’s presidential ticket especially after the eight years of a northern president should ordinarily be the turn of the South. Obi’s camp further made a strong case for micro-zoning the party’s ticket to the South-east geo-political zone in view of the fact that it is the only zone in the South yet to produce a president since the return to democracy in 1999.

Obi’s camp argued that their clamour is based on equity, justice, and fairness in the PDP for an Igbo presidency from the South having had a Yoruba from the South-west and a Niger Deltan from the South-south. Obi’s camp felt that it was not only a southern turn, but also an Igbo turn if justice and fairness were to be considered. Obi’s camp often argues that the South-east has been very supportive and faithful to the PDP from 1999 to date, yet has not been rewarded for its loyalty.

However, Obi’s camp having foreseen that their very strong case for not just a southern presidency, but an Igbo presidency would not be considered quit the party in anger to pursue what they believed was equitable, fair, and just elsewhere.

From 1999 to 2019 the then ruling PDP had always won elections landslide in the following states: Abia, Ebonyi, Enugu, Imo, Anambra, Edo, Cross River, Rivers, Delta, Akwa Ibom, Bayelsa, Plateau, Taraba, and the FCT. In the 2023 elections, Obi dislodged the PDP and won landslide in: Abia, Ebonyi, Enugu, Imo, and Anambra states. He also dislodged the PDP and won with good margins in Edo, Cross River, Delta, Plateau, and Nasarawa states and the FCT. Obi did a serious damage to the PDP’s votes in Akwa Ibom, Bayelsa, Taraba, Adamawa, and Kaduna, states where the PDP won.

In the 2023 elections, Obi got 582,454 in Lagos state against the PDP’s 75,750 votes. In 2019, the Atiku-Obi joint ticket got 448,015 votes in Lagos. In 2019, the Atiku-Obi joint ticket got 649,612 in Kaduna state, but in 2023 PDP got 554,360 while LP got 294,494 votes. In 2019, the Atiku-Obi joint ticket got 356,817 in Benue state while in 2023 where the APC won the presidential elections LP came second with 308,722 against the PDP’s 130,081votes. In 2019 the Atiku-Obi joint ticket got 548,665 in Plateau state, but in 2023 LP won the elections with 466,272 against the APC’s second position of 307,195 and the PDP’s third position of 243,808.

Obi of LP gave the PDP a deadlier blow in the 2023 elections than the rest. The PDP as the main opposition party in 2019 had Atiku-Obi ticket where it polled 11.2m votes while the then incumbent President Buhari of the APC polled 15.1m votes. In 2023 Atiku Abubakar of the PDP polled 6.9m votes, Obi of the LP polled 6.1m votes, and Rabiu Kwankwaso of the NNPP polled 1.4m votes. The three candidates of the three major opposition parties in 2023 polled 14.5m votes while President Bola Tinubu of the governing APC polled 8.7m votes. 

In my view, for our dear country to have political stability though unwritten in our constitution there is a need for rotational leadership between the North and South. Some northerners often argue on the North’s voting strength for power retention continually in the North while the South often argues for power shift for being the economic powerhouse of the country for a sense of belonging and in the interest of the unity of the country.

Permit me to correct a misconception by some people about the concept of majority rule in democracy. The true meaning of the concept is not about one’s ethnic or religious or regional majority in the polity, but about the ability of a candidate in a democratic system to convince the majority of the electorate to vote for him in an election based on his manifesto irrespective of his background. Democracy presupposes leaders to be elected based on their political ideologies or manifestos, policies and programmes and not their religions”or regions.

The cardinal objective is to better the lots of the people through the provision of dividends of democracy. In our country practical reality shows that one’s well being is not necessarily better off under someone from his region or religion. Of our 65 years of independence northerners had 48 years of reign in with 11 personalities while southerners had 17 years with five personalities yet the North has the highest poverty, unemployment, out-of-school children, maternal mortality, infant mortality, and illiteracy rates in the country.

The politics of North vs South has partly greatly affected the re-election of President Goodluck Jonathan in 2015 . There were massive revolts by Atiku, Saraki, Tambuwal, seven serving PDP governors and some senators/Reps members, among others, on zoning against Jonathan in 2015. 

However, the major camps in the PDP must have by now learned some bitter lessons. It was obvious that pre-election disunity among them which was principally on zoning did more harm than good to them. Atiku’s camp had argued that zoning should wait until power returned to the PDP. They further argued that the fastest road to PDP’s return to power in 2023 was to field a northern candidate. On the other hand, Obi’s camp felt otherwise and quit the party. It is now left to be seen between now and 2027 whether Obi’s camp issue in the PDP will be addressed and brought back to the party or not. 

We really need a strong and united opposition party that will always keep the ruling party on its toes in order to prevent abuse of power. Strong opposition party in a democratic system always provides an alternative to the ruling party.

In my view, come 2027 for political stability, unity, equity, justice, and fairness the opposition party should present a competent southern candidate to face the ruling party for Nigerian’s to decide.