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After missing the last World Cup in Qatar — the first time the global fiesta would be held in the Middle East — Nigeria’s hope of making a return to the Mundial suffered a halt as the Super Eagles, hitherto intent on winning their four remaining matches after failures in their previous games, with one win, three draws and a loss, failed to beat Bafana Bafana of South Africa in Bloemfontein on Tuesday.
The match was one that held so much for the three times African champions, as nothing short of victory would have been better but the Super Eagles went behind in the 25th minute when William Troost-Ekong diverted Mohau Nkota’s cross into his own net.
However, they showed resilience and equalised on the stroke of half-time through Calvin Bassey, who capitalised on Fisayo Dele-Bashiru’s cutback. In the second half, Nigeria pushed for a winner through substitute Tolu Arokodare, while South Africa threatened with Mbekezeli Mbokazi’s long-range effort. Despite chances at both ends, neither side could find a decisive goal, and the match ended in a stalemate.
The result leaves Nigeria in third place in Group C with 11 points from eight matches. They are level with Rwanda but behind both South Africa and Benin in the standings.
South Africa remains top with 17 points, while Benin sits second on 14 points. Lesotho has six points, and Zimbabwe are bottom with four.
Meanwhile, with an unlikelihood of qualifying automatically as Group C winners, Nigerians are hoping that the Super Eagles win their two remaining matches and to win convincingly in order to stay on course to be among the four best second-placed teams.
Recall that from.inceotuon, the African qualifiers comprise of two rounds. The first — the ongoing round — is being contested in the form of a group stage, with nine groups of six teams each. Each team will play two matches, home and away, against each of their opponents. The top finishers in all the groups will qualify for the 2026 World Cup.
The second round will pit the four best runners-up in two one-off semifinal, followed by a final. The winner of this second round will participate in the FIFA Play-off Tournament.
The FIFA Play-Off Tournament will see six sides fight it out for the final two places at the 23rd FIFA World Cup. It will involve two teams from CONCACAF and one team apiece from the AFC, CAF, CONMEBOL and OFC. The four lowest-ranked nations among them will meet in bracket semifinals, while the two highest-ranked teams will go directly into the finals. The winners of the two bracket finals will reach the FIFA World Cup 26.
However, while the hope of Nigerians is now in the playoff, the road is not as smooth as the citizens have envisaged, with odds for a good second-placed finish agonisingly against the Super Eagles.
For instance, South Africa will almost certainly secure automatic qualification across their two remaining games against Zimbabwe and Rwanda next month. The Bafana Bafana will play both matches in their home as Zimbabwe, who will be at home, earlier adopted the former apartheid enclave as their home country after their facilities failed minimum test for approval.
Nigeria could still realistically finish second in their group but they are highly unlikely to secure one of the best four runner-up slots for the play-offs. The maximum points that Eric Chelle’s men can finish on is 17. This is where the main issues arise. They have not been able to muster enough points to challenge those holding sway in the second spots in their various groups.
Gabon, for example, already has 19 points, while Madagascar and DRC Congo have 16 points with four other sides already on 15 points and all of them, just like Nigeria, have two more matches to go. In football, it is a popular saying that everything is possible but analysts are questioning how the Super Eagles who will finish with 17 points should they win their two remaining matches, could upstage others. Already, Gabon are assured of one of the four slots and that is if they fail to even get the automatic ticket as they trail Group F leaders, Cote d’Ivoire, by a point. From all indications, Group F would likely produce one of the winners of the four playoff slots, leaving the Super Eagles to fight the three remaining tickets with the rest who are even above them after match-day 8.
Nigeria qualified for six out of seven World Cups between 1994 and 2018 but their quest to reach Canada, Mexico and the United States in 2026 appears essentially over.
The Super Eagles squad is littered with household names, including the current African Footballer of the Year, Ademola Lookman. The Atalanta star featured in the 1-1 draw with South Africa, but Victor Osimhen missed out through injury. Osimhen is the third most valuable African player at €70 million and the absence of the Galatasaray star was sorely felt.
Meanwhile, despite the obvious reality facing the team, some Nigerians have demonstrated the typical Naija spirit of ‘It’s not over until it is over’, saying the Super Eagles could still pull off a surprise qualification.
One of such Nigerian is former national team midfielder, Friday Ejpo. The 1992 AFCON bronze winner said he had the hope that his compatriots would qualify as far as they win the two remaining matches.
“The Super Eagles’ hope of qualifying for the 2026 World Cup is not over yet. The most important thing at the moment is for the team to win their remaining two games and hope other countries from other groups fail to get higher points,” he said.
He continued, “So, I still believe that the Super Eagles will make it to football’s biggest showpiece. The draw against South Africa doesn’t mean that we are out of the World Cup race. Until the final game, I am still optimistic Nigeria can qualify.”
Gernot Rohr, former Super Eagles manager, whose Benin Republic side is second in Group C with 14 points after picking victories against Lesotho and Rwanda, technically said it’s over for the Super Eagles.
The Franco-German manager admitted that he feels sad for his former players, who could miss out on another World Cup after missing the 2022 edition.
“Of course, I predicted a win for Nigeria (against South Africa), but they got a draw, so they have a very small chance to qualify because there’s still hope for second-placed teams across the groups,” he told The Nation Sports.
“But it can be difficult for Nigeria because they would need more points. It can be frustrating, and I feel pity for my former players that they might not be going to the next World Cup.”
While ruing the imminent non-qualification of the Super Eagles for the World Cup, former captain, John Mikel Obi, said the entire board of the NFF should go for their failure in galvanising efforts in this regard, should the Super Eagles eventually failed to land a World Cup ticket.
The UEFA Champions League winner said having failed to qualify for the last World Cup, it was sad that the Super Eagles once again may fail to make it to the Mundial, calling for the sack of the board of the NFF, saying if it takes government to intervene, so be it
“If we don’t make it to the World Cup, I just think the whole board of the NFF have to go,” Mikel said on The Obi One Podcast.
“It is not acceptable that twice in a row we are not going to qualify for the World Cup. We are the biggest football country in Africa. I don’t care what anybody says, Nigeria is the biggest when it comes to African football.
“Twice in a row we don’t qualify, something is wrong, a drastic change has to be made. If the government wants to, they have to get involved.
“Yes, the players have to take responsibility, but the biggest problem is from the top.
“You have to make the players motivated. The dream is not dead and buried yet. We have two games left, we have to support the team, but if we don’t make it, the drastic change has to happen, and the whole board has to go.”
Meanwhile, Transfermarket.com said that it is unthinkable that the Super Eagles struggled against teams in Group C given that Nigeria currently has the second most valuable squad from all African nations at €335.5m.
The transfer market expert website said Morocco leads the way at €358, noting therefore that it’s incomprehensible that the Super Eagles will miss out on the World Cup with the team that played South African featuring players from all top five leagues. To put their qualifying plight into context, Nigeria’s squad is more than 10 times more valuable than South Africa, who will finish at the top of Group C.