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By Chinwendu Obienyi
The recent report from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) paints a grim picture and highlights a concerning decline in purchasing power and economic well-being of Nigerians.
The development fuels concerns over the country’s economic trajectory and its standing on the global stage.
According to the latest figures, Nigeria’s GDP per capita continued on a downward trajectory, reaching $835.49 in 2025—its lowest level in recorded history.
Despite nominal GDP growth (increasing from N60.66 trillion to N71.13 trillion in 2024), the depreciation of the naira significantly reduced dollar-denominated GDP per capita alongside the country’s rapid population growth, both of which have significantly eroded economic prosperity.
Over the past decade, Nigeria’s GDP per capita has plummeted by 74.08 per cent, falling from $3,222.7 in 2014 to its current level, underscoring the fragile state of the country’s economic progress.
GDP per capita serves as a crucial metric for measuring a nation’s average standard of living, as it accounts for both economic output and population size. To this, the steady decline in Nigeria’s GDP per capita paints a worrying picture of economic stagnation, further exacerbated by macroeconomic instability, exchange rate volatility, and weak policy responses.
The key issues contributing to this decline include sluggish economic growth, rapid population expansion, inflationary pressures, and structural inefficiencies. For instance, the World Bank Group has said Nigeria’s participation in intra-regional trade and investment in Sub-Saharan Africa remains below expectations, despite being the region’s largest economy and population center.
The group also stated that the country has not yet established itself as a significant source of foreign direct investments (FDIs) or remittances in the Sub-Saharan African region.
Also, JP Morgan recently revealed that Nigeria and other emerging markets were at risk of significant capital outflows due to several interrelated factors including President Donald Trump’s “America First” policy. The bank noted that this could undermine the country’s financial stability and economic growth.
Thus, unless significant measures are taken to stimulate sustainable economic growth, Nigeria may continue to lag behind its African and global counterparts, leaving millions vulnerable to worsening economic conditions.
When placed in comparison to other countries with similar populations, Nigeria lags far behind. For instance, Indonesia’s GDP per capita is $5,250, and Brazil’s is $10,820.
Similarly, Nigeria ranks the lowest among its African peers in 2025. Comparative data reveals that South Africa’s GDP per capita stands at $6,517.1, Morocco at $4,470.6, Tunisia at $4,396.2, Egypt at $3,160.1, Ghana at $2,189.3, and Kenya at $2,186.6.
These figures suggest that the supposed “giant of Africa” remains in the lower GDP per capita bracket of $500 to $2,500, placing it among some of the least economically prosperous nations in Sub-Saharan Africa.
This stark contrast further highlights the widening gap in economic development between Nigeria and its regional counterparts. In a broader global context, emerging and developing economies continue to outperform Nigeria in terms of GDP per capita growth.
According to IMF data, the average GDP per capita across these economies stood at $17,060 in 2024, with an expected increase to $17,901 in 2025, driven by an annual real GDP growth rate of 4.2 per cent.
While the IMF projects an eventual uptrend for Nigeria, it is only expected to cross the $1,000 threshold by 2028, with a projected GDP per capita of $1,040. This slow recovery underscores the urgent need for structural economic reforms, improved productivity, and enhanced investment in key sectors to accelerate growth and boost individual prosperity.
Already, President Bola Tinubu has increased the country’s proposed 2025 budget from N49.7 trillion to N54.2 trillion. The revised budget, dubbed the Budget of Restoration, is aimed at addressing economic growth, infrastructure development, and national security.
The budget follows an expansionary fiscal policy, meaning the government intends to spend more to stimulate economic growth with economists warning that if not managed well, this could lead to inflation.
However, officials argue that the increase is backed by revenue rather than money printing, which should minimize inflation risks
Experts speak
Reacting to the development, analysts noted that without decisive reforms, Nigeria risks deeper economic stagnation, while peer nations advance in sustainable development.
Speaking at a recent episode of “The Business Exchange”, Co-Founder, BudgIT, Oluseun Onigbinde, expressed concern about the country’s outlook while stating that the government has to make concrete efforts at being accountable for its spending amongst others.
“If you are going to talk about what Nigeria should be or about a progressive society as it should be, accountability must be at the heart of it. People will say power does not concede without demand but the truth is that if we must fix this or have results, then citizens must be actively plugged in and actively engaged. Democracy itself must engender accountability. If we have accountable systems, we will have more efficient delivery of service for the people and this is what brings economic development and sustainability in my own view”, Onigbinde explained.
Also speaking, the Chief Executive Officer, Cowry Asset Management Limited, Johnson Chukwu, said that countries like Egypt, South Africa, and even Ghana have shown stronger economic resilience through diversification, better governance, and infrastructure development.
He noted that a shrinking GDP per capita implies worsening poverty and socio-economic disparities and added that economic uncertainty may deter both domestic and foreign investment, further slowing growth.
According to him, the economic dependence on crude oil can be reduced with diversification efforts seen in agriculture, technology, manufacturing sectors.
“Looking ahead, the outlook for Nigeria’s GDP per capita remains a pressing concern, particularly as economic growth continues to lag behind population expansion. If current trends persist, the country’s economic progress will remain sluggish, exacerbating poverty levels and reducing the quality of life for millions of Nigerians.
However, projections indicate a slight improvement in the coming years. The IMF anticipates that Nigeria’s GDP per capita will rise to $940.2 in 2026, and further to $1,001.3 by 2029, potentially reaching $1,047.08 by the end of the decade”, Chukwu said.
Conclusion
While the IMF projects a slow recovery—GDP per capita reaching just over $1,000 by 2028, without bold reforms, Nigeria risks falling behind its peers and could decline competitively on the global stage. Thus, structural inefficiencies must be urgently addressed. Additionally, governance has to be improved, infrastructure investment, and economic diversification remains critical to reversing the trend of declining prosperity.
English (US) ·