Nasarawa 2027: Sule’s succession battle heats up

From Abel Leonard, Lafia

As the 2027 gubernatorial election in Nasarawa State draws closer, Governor Abdullahi Sule faces a defining political moment: selecting a successor who will consolidate his administration’s achievements and ensure the All Progressives Congress (APC) retains its dominance in the state. The stakes are high, and the factors influencing this decision are complex—ranging from party politics and zoning arrangements to public perception and governance continuity.

Since assuming office in 2019, Governor Sule has focused on economic growth, infrastructural development, and security improvements. His second term, however, comes with the added responsibility of shaping Nasarawa’s political future beyond his tenure. Political analysts argue that his choice of successor will significantly impact not only the fortunes of the APC but also the trajectory of governance in the state. The challenge before him is ensuring that his successor embodies competence, integrity, and electability while navigating internal party dynamics and stakeholder interests.

Navigating APC’s internal politics

The APC, as the ruling party in Nasarawa, is not without internal struggles. Governor Sule must ensure that the selection of a successor does not create divisions within the party, which could weaken its electoral chances. According to political analyst Dr Madaki Williams, “A divided APC in Nasarawa would only embolden the opposition. Governor Sule’s challenge is to find a candidate acceptable to all factions within the party while maintaining unity.”

Already, some APC members are pushing for an internal candidate—someone within the governor’s administration—while others argue for a more popular, grassroots-oriented politician who can secure widespread voter support. The recent emergence of potential contenders, including some federal appointees and influential figures, has heightened political calculations within the party.

Public opinion and popularity: The electability factor

Beyond party considerations, public perception will play a crucial role in determining the APC’s chances in 2027. The electorate is increasingly aware of governance issues, and their demand for a candidate who understands their needs cannot be overlooked. Early indicators show that the current Accountant General of the state, Mr Musa Ahmed Muhammed, a technocrat and public finance expert, has been gaining attention in political circles.

According to political commentator Prof Abdulkarem Ismail, “Governor Sule needs a successor who has mass appeal, particularly among the youth and grassroots voters. Nasarawa’s political landscape has evolved, and any candidate imposed without considering public sentiment may face resistance at the polls.”

The zoning factor: Balancing equity and political strategy

Nasarawa State has a history of adhering to zoning principles in its gubernatorial elections. The current power structure suggests that Nasarawa West is poised to produce the next governor, given that Governor Sule hails from Nasarawa North and his predecessor, Senator Umaru Tanko Al-Makura, is from Nasarawa South.

Zoning remains a powerful factor in Nigerian politics, as it ensures inclusivity and reduces political tensions. If Governor Sule supports a candidate from Nasarawa West, it could prevent internal rifts within the APC. However, some party members believe that competence should supersede zoning. According to a high-ranking APC official, “Zoning is important, but we must also consider capacity and electability. The PDP is watching closely, and we cannot afford to be complacent.”

Governor Sule’s legacy and continuity of development

Another crucial factor in the succession process is ensuring that Governor Sule’s policies and projects are sustained. His administration has prioritised infrastructural development, investment promotion, and security reforms, and any deviation from these policies could reverse progress.

Dr Ibrahim Ahmed, a governance expert, notes that “the ideal successor must not only be politically strong but also capable of ensuring governance continuity. Nasarawa cannot afford to have someone who will abandon the economic blueprint Governor Sule has established.”

This concern is why some political observers argue that an internal candidate—someone currently serving in the government—would be best suited to maintain continuity. However, others believe that fresh leadership could bring new ideas and drive Nasarawa’s development forward.

Consultation with stakeholders: Traditional and political influence

Governor Sule is expected to engage with political heavyweights, traditional rulers, and religious leaders to ensure consensus on his choice of successor. In Nasarawa, the input of these stakeholders carries significant weight in determining electoral outcomes.

A former governor of the state, who spoke anonymously, remarked, “You cannot successfully install a successor in Nasarawa without consulting the political and traditional institutions. These stakeholders must be carried along to avoid resistance.”

Additionally, the influence of Senator Umaru Tanko Al-Makura and other APC chieftains will shape the succession process. Al-Makura, being a political godfather in Nasarawa, is expected to play a crucial role in determining who gets the APC ticket.

The opposition and PDP’s 2027 strategy

While the APC focuses on its succession plan, the opposition People’s Democratic Party (PDP) is also positioning itself for a strong comeback. The PDP has struggled in recent elections due to internal crises, but a well-calculated strategy could make it competitive in 2027.

Governor Sule has downplayed the PDP’s chances, recently stating that “the PDP is not even in contention because they failed to participate in recent local elections.” However, political analysts warn against underestimating the opposition. If the APC makes a controversial or unpopular choice, the PDP could capitalise on public dissatisfaction.

Incumbency advantage: Will Governor Sule’s choice prevail?

Historically, incumbency has played a decisive role in Nigerian elections. A sitting governor wields significant influence over party structures, financial resources, and government machinery. Governor Sule’s endorsement of a candidate could greatly impact their chances of winning the APC ticket and the general election.

However, history has also shown that incumbency is not always a guarantee of electoral success, especially if the chosen candidate lacks grassroots support. Political observers recall how past governors struggled to install their successors due to unpopular choices.

The role of emerging aspirants and political realignments

Among the emerging names in Nasarawa’s 2027 gubernatorial race is Senator Ahmed Aliyu Wadada, currently a member of the Social Democratic Party (SDP). Wadada’s recent political moves suggest he may be willing to return to the APC if given the opportunity to contest under its platform.

His return could alter political calculations, as he commands a strong following in Nasarawa West. If Governor Sule decides to back Wadada’s ambition, it could create friction within the APC’s existing power blocs.

Conclusion: A defining political moment for Nasarawa

Governor Abdullahi Sule’s decision on his successor will shape the political and economic landscape of Nasarawa State for years to come. His ability to balance party interests, public expectations, and governance continuity will determine the APC’s fate in 2027.

The coming months will be crucial as political consultations intensify, alliances are formed, and strategic decisions are made. Whether Governor Sule opts for an internal successor, a technocrat, or a popular grassroots politician, one thing remains certain: the battle for Nasarawa’s next governor will be fiercely contested.