Naira to close H1 at N1,700/$ – Commercio Partners

One of the leading investment banking firms, Comercio Partners Limited, has projected that the naira will close the first half of 2025 at N1,700 per dollar, the worst case scenario.

Daily Trust reports that the naira, over the weekend, gained N45 against the dollar at the parallel foreign exchange market following a week-on-week analysis.

The analysis of the FX trade review at the black market from Monday, 3 February 2025, to 7th, showed that the naira appreciated by N40 to N1,565 per dollar from N1,610.

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Commercio Partners in its 2025 Macro Economic Outlook titled “Looking Forward to The Future,” said Nigeria’s exchange rate experienced a significant boost since December following a 2.2billion dollars Eurobond.

“Nigeria’s history of Eurobond issuances reveals a consistent pattern: brief periods of naira appreciation followed by inevitable declines,” the report indicated.

The report explained that only a “holistic, coordinated effort” between monetary and fiscal authorities can ensure sustained currency appreciation and broader economic resilience in the years ahead.

“Having analysed all the Eurobonds performances during high inflows of FPI, our outlook for the naira going forward in the next six months is around N1,700,” the Head of Investment Research and Global Macro Strategist, Dr Ifeanyi Ubah, who presented the report, said.

The CEO of Comercio Partners Capital, Stephen Osho, noted that the naira will appreciate further, attributing the current strength to several factors, including an increase in FX inflows, improved liquidity in the market and clarity provided by the CBN regarding the clearance of foreign exchange (FX) backlogs.

On inflation, the firm projected that headline inflation could drop as low as 15 per cent in the first half of 2025, signaling a gradual return to economic stability.