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ILO forecasts slight decrease in global unemployment for 2024, slow progress on inequality remains
The International Labour Organization (ILO) forecasted a slight decrease in global unemployment for 2024.
In its World Employment and Social Outlook: May 2024 Update, seen by Nairametrics, it predicts that the 2024 global unemployment rate will stand at 4.9% down from 5.0% in 2023.
However, the slow progress in reducing labour market inequalities, particularly affecting women in low-income countries, remains a significant concern.
Despite the anticipated modest improvement in global joblessness, unequal access to employment opportunities continues to be a widespread issue, according to the latest ILO report.
Persisting inequalities despite a decrease in global unemployment
The International Labour Organization (ILO) expects global unemployment to decrease slightly in 2024, but recent trends show a levelling off.
Labour underutilisation remains a major concern, especially in developing countries and among women, with large employment deficits persisting.
Figures from the World Employment and Social Outlook: May 2024 Update indicates:
“Women especially in low-income countries, are disproportionately affected by the lack of opportunities. The jobs gap for women in low-income countries is 22.8%, versus 15.3% for men.
“In high-income countries, the rate is 9.7% for women and 7.3% for men. Family responsibilities significantly contribute to these disparities, with 45.6% of working-age women employed in 2024, compared to 69.2% of men”.
Even when employed, women tend to earn far less than men, particularly in low-income countries. Women in high-income countries earn seventy-three cents for every dollar earned by men, dropping to forty-four cents in low-income countries.
Gender disparities in employment rates are linked to family responsibilities and women’s disproportionate share of unpaid care work, combined with major deficits in care policies and services. Even when employed, women face significant gaps in labour income, particularly in developing economies.
What he said
ILO Director-General, Gilbert F. Houngbo emphasized that there is a persistent lack of employment opportunities and an uneven playing field for women.
He calls for inclusive policies and social justice to ensure strong and inclusive development.
He said,
“Today’s report reveals critical employment challenges that we must still address. Despite our efforts to reduce global inequalities, the labour market remains an uneven playing field, especially for women.
“To achieve a sustainable recovery whose benefits are shared by all, we must work towards inclusive policies that take into consideration the needs of all workers.
“We must place inclusion and social justice at the core of our policies and institutions. Unless we do we will fall short of our objective to ensure strong and inclusive development.”
Monitoring social progress indicators beyond economic activity
While GDP growth is crucial for development, it is essential to measure and monitor social progress indicators beyond economic activity alone. Global trends indicated a slowdown in reducing poverty and informality since 2015.
- The link between these indicators and economic growth has diminished, highlighting the need for a comprehensive approach to achieving the 2030 Agenda, including social dialogue to promote inclusive, equitable, and effective public policies that support human dignity for all.
- The ILO revised its unemployment projection for 2024 to 4.9%, down from 5.2%. However, unemployment is expected to stabilise at 4.9% in 2025.
- The report estimates a ‘jobs gap’ of 402 million people in 2024, including 183 million counted as unemployed.
- Since the adoption of the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development in 2015, progress in reducing poverty and informality has slowed. The number of workers in informal employment has increased from 1.7 billion in 2005 to 2.0 billion in 2024.
The report concludes that a comprehensive approach to reducing poverty and inequality is urgently needed to achieve the Sustainable Development Goals.
What this means
The report indicates significant issues remain, particularly in developing countries and among women, where large employment deficits and underutilisation of labour are persistent problems.
It indicates:
Women, especially in developing countries, face significant barriers to employment.
These barriers are largely due to family responsibilities and a greater share of unpaid care work.
- Even when employed, women earn significantly less than men, particularly in low-income countries. For every dollar men earn, women in high-income countries earn seventy-three cents, and only forty-four cents in low-income countries.
- While GDP growth is important for development, it is crucial to also measure social progress indicators.
- Since 2015, progress in reducing poverty and informal employment has slowed down.
- The connection between economic growth and these social indicators has weakened, necessitating a comprehensive approach to development.
- There remains a ‘jobs gap’ of 402 million people who want to work but are not employed.
What is needed is to promote inclusive and equitable public policies through social dialogue that aligns with societal needs and upholds human dignity.
