How US policy shifts shape South Africa’s economy and politics, By Jabulani Sibande

Ultimately, these realities might affect South Africa’s presidency at the G20 ahead of the November summit. Nevertheless, South Africa should take advantage of the EU-South Africa summit in March to mitigate Trump’s blow. Overall, South Africa-US relations under Cyril Ramaphosa and Donald Trump are under much scrutiny, and this seems to be the beginning.

The last few weeks have been pivotal for the global economy, primarily due to the re-election of the 47^th president of the United States, Donald Trump. Like his previous term, Trump’s second stint has been characterised by an ‘American first policy,’ which underlines nationalism and protectionism. President Trump has signed a series of executive orders on trade and the declaration of US expansion over Canada and Greenland. The 25 per cent tariff on steel and aluminium imports signifies a new era of nationalism for the US.

South Africa has not been exempted from these measures and it faces significant repercussions, mainly due to US’ reluctance to extend economic assistance to it. Trump suspended all US aid to South Africa, citing alleged human rights violations linked to a new land expropriation law — claims that were later proven to be unfounded. The suspension includes approximately US$453 million (R8.5 billion) in direct financial support to South Africa through the President’s Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief (PEPFAR), which was allocated in 2024 alone. This is complicated by the International Court of Justice “genocide” case submitted by the government of South Africa against Israel, Washington’s strong ally.

Reports indicate that Israel has been the largest overall recipient of US foreign aid, receiving approximately $310 billion in economic and military assistance since its founding. In addition, South Africa’s reluctance to condemn Russia’s invasion of Ukraine placed its relationship with the US on thin ice. Ultimately, as alluded to above, the land bill passed by the ANC in 2025 became the final straw. In January 2025, the president of the Republic of South Africa signed the Land Expropriation Bill into law, replacing the pre-democratic Expropriation Act of 1995. The law allows for the expropriation of land without compensation only in situations where it is “just and equitable and in the public interest” to do so.

Trump’s executive order to cut all funding to South Africa comes after he tweeted that “South Africa is confiscating land and maltreating certain classes.” This is, to some extent, connected to Elon Musk, who has become a close associate of President Trump. Musk has seldom expressed his dissatisfaction with President Cyril Ramaphosa, and his relationship with Trump has proven that non-state actors have significant influence on geopolitics.

This is against the backdrop of the fact that 79 per cent of land in South Africa is privately owned, 14 per cent belongs to the government, while 7.7 million hectares remain unregistered. South Africa has the highest inequality rates in the world, as the country’s economy is still dominated by the white minority population, despite over three decades of post-apartheid administrations. The enactment of this law is therefore understandable.

However, the law received backlashes from the Government of National Unity (GNU) partners, especially the Democratic Alliance (DA). In addition, the far-right organisation, AfriForum, has criticised the passing of the bill, calling it an evil and destructive agenda that can only harm South Africans. This position is arguably invalid given that the organisation’s motives are questionable in light of its baseless claims of ‘white genocide’ in South Africa. AfriForum called on the US to sanction the South African government and reverse the law. Trump responded by offering asylum to white Afrikaners in the US. On its part, the DA, as the successor to the National Party, continues to safeguard the interests of those who benefited from the apartheid era. Its alignment with right-wing ideologies and enduring ties with the US have remained evident in the post-apartheid era.

Trump’s executive order to cut all funding to South Africa comes after he tweeted that “South Africa is confiscating land and maltreating certain classes.” This is, to some extent, connected to Elon Musk, who has become a close associate of President Trump. Musk has seldom expressed his dissatisfaction with President Cyril Ramaphosa, and his relationship with Trump has proven that non-state actors have significant influence on geopolitics. These realities have reinforced the persistent global hegemons’ disrespect for less powerful states. Propaganda as a political tactic persists, affecting smaller states which must navigate the global economy through the rules determined by great powers like the US and China.

The brewing turmoil might have wider implications for the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA), enacted as part of the US Trade and Development Act 2000. It grants duty-free access to the US market for nearly all products exported from over 40 eligible sub-Saharan African (SSA) countries, including South Africa.

The South African Minister of Mineral and Petroleum Resources, Gwede Mantashe, responded to these threats by calling Africa to unite against Trump by withholding minerals from the US. South Africa exports minerals worth $10.9 billion to the US annually. These include platinum, gold, and chromium ore, among others, making South Africa a strong US trading partner in Africa. The brewing turmoil might have wider implications for the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA), enacted as part of the US Trade and Development Act 2000. It grants duty-free access to the US market for nearly all products exported from over 40 eligible sub-Saharan African (SSA) countries, including South Africa.

Ultimately, these realities might affect South Africa’s presidency at the G20 ahead of the November summit. Nevertheless, South Africa should take advantage of the EU-South Africa summit in March to mitigate Trump’s blow. Overall, South Africa-US relations under Cyril Ramaphosa and Donald Trump are under much scrutiny, and this seems to be the beginning.

Jabulani Sibande is a Research Assistant at the University of Johannesburg’s (UJ) Institute for the Future of Knowledge.