According to the latest Global Burden of Disease (GBD) Study, global mortality has fallen by a surprising 67% since 1950. This means that people are dying far less than they used to about 70 years ago, and this marks one of the greatest health successes in modern history.
The 20th and early 21st centuries have seen medical progress that has, in turn, transformed survival rates across the globe. The study shows that life expectancy has climbed to 76.3 years for women and 71.5 years for men. This is more than 20 years higher than in 1950 and a contrast to when preventable diseases regularly cut lives short.
Yet next to this success story, researchers warn of an emerging crisis of deaths among young people linked to drugs, alcohol, suicide, and injuries.
Global Health Progress
The new GBD report, published in The Lancet and led by the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) at the University of Washington, utilises decades of data from over 200 countries and attributes humanity’s progress to the significant expansion of healthcare interventions since the mid-20th century.
“Since 1950, humanity has extended life through better vaccines, sanitation, and nutrition,” said Professor Christopher Murray, Director of IHME and one of the study’s lead authors.
“The decline in global mortality is nothing short of historic. It reflects what we can achieve when science, policy, and public health align.”
Infant and maternal mortality have dropped significantly. According to the study, fewer children die before their fifth birthday, and communicable diseases such as measles, tuberculosis, and malaria, which were once major killers, have been dramatically reduced.
Even in sub-Saharan Africa, where progress has lagged behind global averages, mortality has surprisingly declined steadily due to improved immunisation and disease-control efforts.
Emerging High Youth Death Rates
While this report brings good news, it also carries a sharp warning. While older adults are living longer, many adolescents and young adults around the world are dying at rates that seem alarming.
The GBD analysis found that deaths among this demographic are high and are even rising in some regions. Some of the causes linked to this include drug and alcohol use, suicide, road injuries, interpersonal violence, and, for young women, maternal complications.
“The world’s youth are facing a health crisis that isn’t getting the attention it deserves,” said Dr Emmanuela Gakidou, co-author of the study and professor at IHME.
“We are seeing concerning trends in substance use, self-harm, and injuries. These are not infectious diseases that can be solved with a vaccine; they are deeply tied to mental health, inequality, and social change.”
For young women, the statistics are a lot more alarming. The study revealed that the death rate among females aged 15–29 was 61% higher than previously estimated. This is largely because of complications during pregnancy and childbirth, as well as road accidents and meningitis.
In regions such as North America and Western Europe, drug overdoses and suicide are driving the number of deaths recorded. While in regions like Africa and South Asia, where access to healthcare remains inconsistent, road accidents, infectious diseases, and maternal causes are factors that reportedly continue to claim young lives.
A Tale of Inequality
The GBD reports indicate that persistent inequality in global health remains a concern, with benefits disproportionately favouring some over others. Despite a global decrease in mortality, the progress recorded has not been uniformly distributed.
In Nigeria and across a greater part of sub-Saharan Africa, life expectancy remains below 65 years, compared with more than 80 years in parts of Western Europe and East Asia. Young Africans are more likely to die from preventable causes such as road injuries, malaria, or complications during childbirth.
“Every country has seen some progress,” said Professor Murray, “but the gap between the best and worst health outcomes remains unacceptably wide. It’s a reminder that global averages can hide local crises.”
The Next Big Thing in Global Health
Public-health experts argue that addressing this youth mortality challenge requires rethinking how societies invest in health. The traditional focus on childhood immunisation and maternal care should now expand to accommodate mental health services, addiction support, road safety, and youth education.
There is proof of effective programmes that integrated the mental health topic into schools and primary care systems in parts of Europe and Latin America. However, low and middle-income countries still face severe shortages of psychiatrists, counsellors, and other essential youth-focused facilities.
In many African nations, mental health services receive less than 1% of national health budgets. And without urgent investment and intervention, experts warn that preventable deaths among young people could undermine the decades of global progress recorded.
A Narrow Win
As the world celebrates a two-thirds decline in mortality since 1950, the GBD report reminds us that progress is not always consistent. Humanity has conquered many diseases that once defined our mortality, but new forms of vulnerability are emerging.
Experts say that the next significant health victory will not come from a laboratory but from social resilience, which involves addressing the mental, environmental, and behavioural challenges that threaten young lives.
In the words of Professor Murray, “We’ve learned how to help people live longer. The next step is ensuring those extra years are lived in good health and that no generation is left behind.”
