Germany’s Conservatives Win National Election As Far-Right AfD Surges To Historic Second Place

Germany’s opposition conservatives secured victory in the national election on Sunday, positioning Friedrich Merz to become the country’s next chancellor. Meanwhile, the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) achieved its best-ever result, coming in second, according to projected results.

Following a campaign marked by violent attacks and interventions from US President Donald Trump’s administration, the conservative CDU/CSU bloc won 28.7% of the vote. The AfD followed with 19.8%, according to projections by ZDF public broadcaster.

Addressing supporters, Merz, 69, expressed confidence in the task ahead. “Tonight we will celebrate, and from tomorrow we start working. The world out there is not waiting for us,” he said.

Despite emerging as the largest bloc, the CDU/CSU recorded its second-worst post-war result, leaving Merz in a challenging position as coalition negotiations begin. It remains unclear whether he will need one or two partners to form a majority. A three-way coalition could prove cumbersome, potentially hindering Germany’s ability to project clear leadership.

All mainstream parties have ruled out working with the AfD. Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s Social Democrats (SPD) suffered their worst defeat since World War II, securing only 16.4% of the vote. The Greens obtained 12.3%, while the far-left Die Linke party received 8.9%. The pro-market Free Democrats (FDP) and the newly formed Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW) hovered around the 5% threshold needed to enter parliament.

Merz, who lacks prior government experience, has pledged to restore Germany’s leadership in Europe and strengthen ties with key allies. He supports, albeit conditionally, sending longer-range Taurus missiles to Ukraine—a move Scholz’s government previously avoided—and remains committed to Europe’s NATO membership.

A staunch economic liberal, Merz has steered the CDU/CSU further to the right, marking a stark contrast to former Chancellor Angela Merkel, who led Germany for 16 years. His coalition talks are expected to be fraught with difficulties, particularly given deep divisions over migration policy and the AfD’s growing influence in German politics.

Scholz could remain in a caretaker role for months as coalition negotiations unfold, potentially delaying crucial policies aimed at reviving Germany’s economy. Europe’s largest economy has faced two consecutive years of contraction, with businesses struggling to compete globally.

A prolonged leadership vacuum in Berlin comes at a precarious time for Europe. The region faces multiple challenges, including Trump’s threats of a trade war and efforts to broker a Ukraine ceasefire without European involvement.

Public sentiment in Germany has also shifted dramatically. Once known for its welcoming stance towards refugees during the 2015 migrant crisis, the country now faces growing concerns over irregular migration. The AfD has capitalised on this shift, using the issue to fuel its rise in popularity.

Sunday’s election followed the collapse of Scholz’s coalition in November over budget disputes. The campaign was dominated by heated debates on immigration, exacerbated by a series of attacks in which the suspects were of migrant origin.

The election also saw an unusual level of foreign influence, with members of Trump’s administration—including Vice President JD Vance and billionaire Elon Musk—expressing solidarity with the anti-migrant AfD.

For the first time in its 12-year history, the AfD secured second place in a national election. “This is a historic result for us,” AfD co-leader Alice Weidel declared as party supporters waved German flags in celebration. “We are open to coalition negotiations… otherwise, no policy change will be possible in Germany.”

The rise of both the AfD and the far left, coupled with the decline of Germany’s traditional big-tent parties, is complicating coalition formation. Analysts warn that a three-party coalition could make governance even more difficult. A note from Capital Economics highlighted that “reaching a consensus is likely to be more difficult than with only two parties.”

As Germany enters a period of political uncertainty, the outcome of coalition negotiations will determine the country’s direction in the years ahead.

Melissa Enoch

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