FCMB Group Plc has projected a profit after tax (PAT) of N58.8 billion for the fourth quarter of 2025, according to its latest filing on the Nigerian Exchange (NGX).
The forecast, a regulatory requirement for listed firms, provides investors with forward guidance on the lender’s financial performance as it navigates a challenging operating environment.
If achieved, the first quarter figure would push FCMB’s full-year profit to N171.5 billion, more than double the N73 billion it recorded in 2024, marking the bank’s strongest earnings performance in its history.
A review of FCMB’s 2025 performance so far shows a consistent trend of outperforming its own projections. In the first quarter, it forecast N31.2 billion but posted N32.2 billion.
In the second quarter, it projected N36.6 billion but delivered N41.1 billion. For the third quarter, it had guided for N39.3 billion, with actual results yet to be formally published.
Analysts suggest this track record indicates the fourth quarter projection may be conservative, leaving potential upside for shareholders.
On the revenue side, the bank expects gross earnings of N265.2 billion in the fourth quarter, with interest income contributing N231.8 billion.
One of FCMB’s biggest hurdles in 2025 was the expiry of the Central Bank of Nigeria’s (CBN) loan forbearance regime, which forced banks to fully recognize previously deferred impairments.
In the first half alone, the group reported N36.2 billion in write-downs, including N26.7 billion in the second quarter—well above its forecast of N11.3 billion.
Despite this, FCMB still managed to beat profit expectations, underlining its operational resilience. The bank noted that with the forbearance exit now completed, no further impairment shocks are expected.
Like other Nigerian banks, FCMB faces the CBN’s recapitalisation deadline. Estimates suggest it needs to raise an additional N188 billion to meet regulatory thresholds.
The group has already made progress, raising N144.6 billion in 2024 through a public offer, including a N22.5 billion mandatory convertible note that will lift issued shares to about 42.8 billion units.
