EPL: Will Liverpool’s Merseyside Derby Draw Turn The Tide?

(WITH AGENCY REPORT) Entering the Merseyside derby against Everton at Goodison Park on Wednesday, Liverpool understood the enormity and sig­nificant of the outstanding match that has generated so much de­bate.

Expectations were rife that after the outstanding match on Wednesday — the last Mersey­side derby at the famous stadium (as The Toffees will be relocat­ing to their new ground), the Premier League table toppers, Liverpool, would have opened a nine-point lead over Arsenal.

The Reds looked set to move in that nine points clear until James Tarkowski volleyed home in the dying moments to send Goodison Park wild.

With 14 rounds of matches to play, the dropped points might have given Arsenal some hope that they could catch up.

To Arsenal fans, the result meant so lmuch even though they are second with a whopping seven points deficit and given the form of Liverpool, it is still a Herculean task for the Gunners.

However, analysts are of the view that catching up the league leaders and (or) sustaining the momentum at the top on the part of Liverpool is a function of so many factors.

The question has been wheth­er injuries could play a part in the title race, and also whether history suggest Liverpool will triumph?

Despite the draw, Opta’s su­percomputer predictor gives Liv­erpool a 89% chance of winning the title, compared to 10.9% for Arsenal, meaning Liverpool still in strong position.

Some pieces of history still fa­vour The Reds. This is because the biggest deficit overhauled in the Premier League era (when all teams have played 24 games) was five points. Put differently, when all teams have played 24 matches, only two times it has happened that the leader, lead­ing second placed team with five points, was eventually toppled at the end of the.

That was achieved just twice — by Manchester United in 2003 and Manchester City six years ago.

There has been no other time that at 24 games played by all teams, the table toppers led with higher points (as Liverpool is leading) and they eventually lost the title.

The biggest points gap that has been overturned after the leaders had played 24 games is nine points. That was achieved by Manchester United in 1996, but at that time, they had not played the same number of games as the then leaders, New­castle, with the Red Devils hav­ing played a game more.

At 24 games for all teams played so far this season, Liv­erpool lead with seven points and going by the history, they are highly favoured for the ti­tle. Losing the title means they would need to drop points in at least three of their remaining 14 games for Arsenal to catch them.

To Rio Ferdinand, former Manchester United star and TNT Sports expert, this assumption is a bit tricky but that it is pos­sible if The Reds are put under pressure.

“With this Liverpool team it looks ominous for everybody else,” said Ferdinand after the draw against Everton.

“They have a really gritty side to them… you have to put them under pressure otherwise they just cruise.

“When you have outlets like Mohamed Salah, who is the most clinical player around at the mo­ment, you can afford to sit back and play in second gear a bit.”

IMPACT OF LIVERPOOL’S REMAIN­ING FIXTURES ON TITLE RACE

An intriguing aspect of the title race will be seeing how Liverpool respond to the disap­pointment of conceding such a late, dramatic equaliser against Everton.

The match was the first of five Premier League games in just 15 days for Liverpool.

They are going to be without head coach, Arne Slot, in the dugout for their next game after he was shown a red card after the final whistle against Everton, while Curtis Jones was also dis­missed in the post-match chaos and is facing a one-match ban.

Liverpool will next play Wolverhampton Wanderers in the Premier League on Sunday, February 16. They then travel to Aston Villa on Wednesday, Feb­ruary 19.

A trip to defending Premier League champions Manchester City follows on February 23, before three successive home games against Newcastle Unit­ed (February 26), Southampton (March 8), and Everton (April 2).

In addition, Liverpool play in the UEFA Champions League last 16 on March 4/5 and 11/12, and have the League Cup final against Newcastle on March 16.

Liverpool host Arsenal on the third-to-last weekend of the sea­son, on May 10.

WILL INJURIES HURT ARSENAL’S QUEST?

The Gunners returned from Dubai with league games against the Foxes, West Ham United (February 22), Nottingham For­est (February 26) and Manches­ter United (March 9).

They also play in the Champi­ons League last 16 on March 4/5 and 11/12.

There appeared good news for Arsenal during their Dubai break as Bukayo Saka returned to light training, having not played since December due to a hamstring injury.

However, that positivity was dampened by Kai Havertz’s sea­son ending injury as he is out for the rest of the season. Havertz has been Arsenal’s first-choice striker this season but suffered a hamstring injury during a train­ing session in Dubai.

Gabriel Jesus is out after undergoing surgery on an ACL injury, while Gabriel Martinelli is out with a hamstring issue. Saka’s return date is unknown.

Arsenal did not sign a forward in the January transfer window.

Despite the injury challenges, Arsenal are currently unbeaten in 14 league matches (W9 D5) – their longest run without defeat under Mikel Arteta.

They have one fewer Premier League game than Liverpool in the rest of this month, but play one more than the Reds in March.

Gunners fans will be hoping their side are still in the title race when they go to Anfield on 10 May because getting a result in that game would set them up for a home fixture against New­castle and then an away trip to Southampton on the final day, by which point the Saints could be relegated.

WHO HAS THE EASIER RUN-IN BE­TWEEN LIVERPOOL, ARSENAL?

 Half of Liverpool’s games are against teams in the top half of the table, with potentially tricky trips to Aston Villa and Man­chester City coming up in their next three games.

They also play rivals Arsenal towards the end of the season but have the advantage of host­ing that encounter.

Arsenal, meanwhile, face six sides in the top half of the table in their final 14 games.

MATCHES THAT CAN SHAPE TITLE RACE FOR ARSENAL

Arsenal vs West Ham

Man City vs Liverpool

The first opportunity for the gap to be reduced isn’t too far away. Now, Manchester City ar­en’t the powerhouse they usual­ly are this season, but it will still be tough for Liverpool to go to the Etihad. A lot tougher than Arsenal’s home game against West Ham United, at least.

Arsenal have the benefit of playing first that weekend, knowing they can put the pres­sure on Liverpool. The Gunners have won their last two games against West Ham by an aggre­gate score of 11-2. Although both of those victories did come at the London Stadium, Arsenal will still be boosted by their home form. Arsenal are the only team yet to lose at home in the Premier League this season, winning eight and drawing four of their 12 matches so far. West Ham are also struggling to find their feet under Graham Potter.

Liverpool, meanwhile, are the only team not to lose a game away from home this season. They’ve won nine and drawn three of their 12 league match­es on the road. But, they have been known to drop points in the league at the Etihad. Man City are unbeaten in their past eight home league games against Liverpool, since a 1-4 defeat in November 2015. Man City have won four of those games, with four draws.

Gameweek 34

Arsenal vs Crystal Palace

Liverpool vs Tottenham

If Arsenal do wish to over­take Liverpool, they may have to be patient. The next time they have an obviously favourable matchup isn’t until Gameweek 34. Both teams are at home that gameweek, with Arsenal hosting Crystal Palace. Now, the Eagles do have the best away defensive record this season, conceding just 11 goals on the road. But Arsenal are the best home team in the league, unbeaten in their 12 games at the time of writing, winning eight and drawing four. And, Arsenal have won their past six games against Palace across all competitions, including twice already this season.

Liverpool entertain Totten­ham Hotspur that same week­end, and these games are usual­ly filled with drama and goals. Of course, Arsenal won’t have happy memories of relying on a Tottenham result against title rivals. Liverpool have won three of their past five games against Tottenham, including a 4-0 win in the Carabao Cup semi-final second leg. They’re also unbeat­en at home against Tottenham since May 2011. But, Tottenham will hope to be fresher by the time they visit Anfield in April, particularly in defence. Things aren’t certainly in Arsenal’s fa­vour, but they have a chance.

Gameweek 35

Arsenal vs Bournemouth

Chelsea vs Liverpool

The potential title-changing games come thick and fast. In Gameweek 35, Arsenal have another home game, this time against Bournemouth. Over the winter, Bournemouth were one of the best teams in the Pre­mier League alongside Arsenal and Liverpool, going on a long unbeaten run. But that run was ended by Liverpool, and now Arsenal will be hoping to copy their rivals. Again, Arsenal’s home form will come into play here, and their record against Bournemouth. The Gunners have never lost at home to the Cherries across all competitions. In fact, they boast a perfect re­cord in the eight matches these two have contested at Highbury and the Emirates.

Again, Liverpool have a game they probably can expect to win. But it won’t be easy as they trav­el to Stamford Bridge to face Chelsea. The Blues have been an interesting team this season, hard to predict what their results will be. They have fared better on the road than at home, and don’t have a good record against their fellow Big Six sides. But, Liver­pool haven’t won in their past three visits to Stamford Bridge — drawing all three.

This gameweek will also come between potential Champions League semi-finals for Liverpool and Arsenal. And if you had to pick between these two fixtures, you’d much rather have Bournemouth at home than Chelsea away.

Gameweek 36

Liverpool vs Arsenal

In an ideal world for the neu­tral, it could all come down to this. If the first three fixtures go Arsenal’s way, this could be their chance to take hold of the title race in the dying stages. It would be all on them.

Liverpool have the upper hand in this game, no matter the layout of the league, host­ing Arsenal at Anfield. The Reds have lost just once at home so far this season, beaten by Notting­ham Forest in September. Arse­nal, meanwhile, are the third-best away team in the Premier League — but they’ve only won six of their 12 games on the road.

Arsenal also haven’t won at Anfield in their last 14 visits, since a 0-2 defeat in September 2012. Although they did knock the Reds out of the Carabao Cup in October 2020, they had to do so after penalties. This is by no means an easy game for Arsenal, but it’s the one match of Liver­pool’s that the Gunners can fully control.