Emerging danger signs to our democracyc

If the current trajectory of political developments in the country continues, by this time next year, we will probably be seeing the last of the opposition political parties. The internal crises afflicting all of them now would have eaten so deep, driving them inevitably to a slow and painful death.

The main opposition party, the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), which once touted itself as the largest political party in Africa and which claimed that it was destined to rule Nigeria for 60 uninterrupted years, is so riven with factions that it is almost safe to bet that by 2027 it will be gasping to death.

The Labour Party (LP), which made a valiant showing at the last general elections in 2023, is also currently embroiled in a life-and-death struggle. Like the PDP, its leading lights are at daggers drawn with each other, dealing mortal blows at themselves and at the party. Some of its celebrated figures have jumped ship for greener pastures, while others have chosen to avail themselves as Trojan horses to destroy the party from within, thereby blunting its ability to repeat its 2023 showing. Very soon Peter Obi, the charismatic figure around whom the support base of the party revolves, will likely be the only major figure left to carry on.

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The New Nigerian People’s Party (NNPP), stuck at its Kano base, is coping with the triple challenges – fierce opposition of the All Peoples Congress (APC); the engineered rebellion within its ranks; and the factional dynastic struggles in the Kano Emirate between Emir Muhammadu Sanusi II and Emir Aminu Ado Bayero. It does not help the situation that both contenders are supported by the state and federal governments, respectively, which exacerbates the tense political stand-off in the state.

Although the NNPP still commands a firm hold on Kano politics, the combination of the three factors will likely shake its control of Kano politics as the 2027 elections draw near.

The ruling APC, too, is showing signs of stress, although the party is striving hard to present a face of normality. But it is not lost on political observers that the APC has lost its inclusive, open nature and image. At its formation from the merger of several opposition parties, the APC stood out as a refuge for all the aggrieved that were denied breathing space in the Nigerian political firmament by the then ruling PDP with its suffocating hold.

Now, after 10 years in power, the APC is seen to behave and act like the PDP it complained of and replaced in 2015. But what is even worse is that whereas the PDP at its moment in power was still able to retain some semblance of democratic structure and processes, the APC has fast downgraded to a party run on the whims of President Bola Ahmed Tinubu. Whereas the PDP was to some extent a party of primus inter pares even at its worst stage, the APC under President Tinubu runs like a Mafia set up with a Godfather to whom everything is beholden.

Contrarily, President Muhammadu Buhari, the first president under the APC, with his laissez-faire disposition, allowed the party and its organs to function to a large extent without hindrance.

But President Tinubu has not only constricted the democratic space within the APC, he has extended this to the entire Nigerian political space.

Let us face it; the political opposition parties are not merely facing the normal internal issues that political parties experience from time to time. The crises they are facing are largely engineered from outside to aid the overarching design for total capture of political power in the country. For instance, the crisis currently ripping the PDP apart is deliberately contrived to prevent the emergence of a formidable opposition figure that will challenge the APC incumbent at the 2027 elections.

Elements within the PDP have been enabled by the APC to carry out this task. Same template is also deployed in the LP. As for the NNPP, the tactic is to distract the party and disallow it from consolidating into a formidable force confronting the ruling party, as Nasarawa State did for the Congress for Progressive Change (CPC) in the run-up to the 2015 elections.

If we pan out to the larger Nigerian context, we will see this dangerous machination at work. The legislative arm of government, which is supposed to function independently as enshrined in the constitution, now works as the legislative department of the executive arm of government. This contrasts sharply to the vibrant and independent days of Speaker Ghali Na’Abba supported ably by such personalities as West Idahosa, Adams Jagaba, Musa Elayo, Abdul Ningi, Mohammed Kumalia etc. Or the days of a truly independent Senate of Chuba Okadigbo, Ken Nnamani, Yari Gandi and even the ninth Senate of Bukola Saraki.

Accusations have also been directed at the Judiciary in this regard. Quite often, it has been cited that the judgments and rulings made by the courts appear to bend to the wishes of the ruling administration which leads many to question the independence of this arm of government.

We should also be alarmed that this clearly dangerous plot against democracy is taking the dimension of the use the anti-corruption agencies as well as law enforcement agencies in going after governors, senators and other influential political and public figures not necessarily to fight against corruption but to blackmail them into compliance in the grand political agenda.

By the time all these are deployed in full force, the outcome we are likely to get in 2027 is a contrived political coronation arising from a well-engineered political fait accompli, not the democratic elections we deserve as a civilian democracy.

What drives these undisguised efforts at subverting our democracy?

The first driver is the morbid fear of possible rejection at the polls; the second is a misplaced craving for compensation and entitlement, and the third is a longing for political vendetta.

President Tinubu is mindful of the fact that at the 2023 polls, he disgracefully lost in, of all places, Lagos and Osun. He also knows very well that, but for the tally of votes from the North, he could have lost the entire election. Coming into the 2027 elections, he is aware that, having hurt Nigerians with his disastrous economic policies, he might not be voted again.

President Tinubu is also driven by a compensation and entitlement complex. He believes that for having been part of the struggle that defeated military rule and enthroned democracy, he is entitled to the gratification of Nigerians by ruling as he wishes without applicable legal and constitutional boundaries to his office as president of the country (the Emilokan complex). Simply put by this consideration, President Tinubu believes democracy should bow to him instead of the other way around.

President Tinubu is also innately persuaded that his ascendancy to the presidency accords him the perfect opportunity to settle long-held political grudges against certain individuals and certain sections of the country. And for him to be able to achieve that comprehensively, he will need to stay in power by any contrivance, fair or foul.

Additionally, Tinubu knows that failure to prevail in the 2027 elections would likely result in an unimaginable fate for him on account of his harsh economic, social and political policies.

What we are witnessing now are the dangerous signs of an emerging coup on our democracy. A coup on democracy does not have to be perpetrated by the military alone. Attempts by civilians, whether in government or in opposition, to subvert the free choices of the people and by extension, the constitution of the country by whatever contrivance, rightly constitutes a coup on democracy.

If by 2027 we see a situation where our political opposition parties have been rendered ineffective to participate in the election process, as is their right, by the deliberate actions of the ruling party using state institutions that ought to be neutral as provided by extant laws and the constitution, then Nigerians have a right to regard this as a subversion of democracy and ipso facto, have every right to vigorously contest. Just as we stood up against unconstitutional military rule, we can also reject a civilian government that is seen acting contrary to the straight and narrow boundaries of the constitution.