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There has been much discussion about Governor Sen. Monday Okpebholo’s decision to choose Hon. Joseph Ikpea as the APC candidate for the vacant Senate seat left open by his election.
It is widely speculated that the governor’s choice is influenced by Chief Lee Ikpea, Joseph Ikpea’s elder brother. Ikpea’s supporters proudly claim that Chief Lee Ikpea financed the governor’s election and even provided him with a private jet for his campaign—as if it was by private jet that the governor reached every nook and cranny of the state. Yet, no such jet was seen in the towns and villages.
Even if Chief Lee Ikpea was indeed the primary financier of Sen. Okpebholo’s election, does that mean his brother automatically deserves the Senate ticket? Should a man who failed to win his own ward be rewarded with such a significant position? This entitlement mentality is not just flawed but politically dangerous.
The purpose of this article is to highlight the risks of such political manipulation. If the APC ticket is truly being handed over to the Ikpeas—the billionaire family that allegedly funded the governor’s election—then the governor is walking into a political minefield.
Such a move could lead to double jeopardy: losing his senatorial district in his election and facing another defeat in the upcoming senatorial race. This would be a grave miscalculation that the party’s leadership in Esan cannot afford to make.
Despite the talk of private jets and billionaire backers, Hon. Ikpea—fully aware of his future political ambitions—failed to deliver his ward to the APC in the last gubernatorial election. His local government, Esan South East, recorded one of the worst results, as the Ugbesia twins and Ighodalo’s influence have firmly established their dominance in the area.
This is unlikely to change. Hon. Ikpea wouldn’t win his domain; perhaps he is relying on the governor to perform some magic. After all, his brother, who supposedly “singlehandedly sponsored” two governorship candidates, may believe that throwing money into the streets will sway the electorates.
Yes, he was neither here nor there—just as he ‘sponsored’ Sen. Monday Okpebholo, he also the backbone of Barr. Asue Ighodalo, ensuring that whomever won would still be under his influence. This is the manipulative way they believe their wealth should work for them.
However, party members must recognize a fundamental truth – Esan North East Local Government Area (Uromi) will never support Hon. Ikpea. Uromi has been yearning for the Senate seat, not having such an opportunity since 1999. The PDP has already zoned its ticket to Uromi, and if Hon. John Yakubu emerges as the candidate, he would easily defeat Hon. Ikpea in Agbazilo.
This means that no matter how one looks at it, an Ikpea ticket is dead on arrival. Furthermore, the incumbency factor will not be an advantage this time. Esan South East and Esan North East – both predominantly PDP – are still bitter about the last election with empathy for Asue Ighodalo and the PDP while the court case continues.
If Hon. Ikpea is destined to lose, just as he did when he contested for a House of Representatives seat, despite having an incumbent governor (Obaseki) backing him, his only hope would be in the Okpebholo part of Esanland or, as his supporters suggest, through rigging (which is easier said than done). Let’s assess the potential outcomes in that region:
• Esan West (Ekpoma) holds significant voting power, but its electorate will not waste their votes on an uninspiring Ikpea ticket. They, too, desire the Senate seat, and no micro-zoning has been established in favor of Agbazilo. Ekpoma, like Uromi, has not held the Senate seat since 1999.
• Esan Central (Governor Okpebholo’s home LGA) may try to support him, but with how many votes? The APC in that LGA only won marginally in the last gubernatorial election because their son was the candidate. This time, many of those who rallied behind him will have no personal stake in the election.
• Igueben Local Government Area is out of the equation. Even if some attempt to undermine Chief Ikimi, the numbers simply would not add up.
So, where exactly will Hon. Ikpea’s winning votes come from? His supporters argue that the governor must “fix it” since he wouldn’t want to suffer another loss in his senatorial district. But that’s precisely where the danger lies. An Ikpea ticket will embarrass the governor, and many political opponents within the APC may be waiting for this mistake to happen—using it as a launchpad to challenge him in his second term.
Modire writes from Abuja
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