Global investors are cautious. High interest rates, volatile currencies, and geopolitical shocks have slowed dealmaking across most emerging markets. Africa, however, is moving in the opposite direction. In the first half of 2025, startups on the continent raised US$1.42 billion, a 78 percent increase from the same period in 2024, across 243 deals. Fintech captured $638.8 million, nearly half of all capital raised. Even more telling, 29 mergers and acquisitions closed in those six months, the highest ever for a first half on the continent.

This is a turning point, but not a story of smooth maturity. Africa’s fintech is shifting from growth at all consolidation costs, yet the same conditions that drive the surge also carry instability. This is a turning point, but not the clean story of smooth maturity some want it to be. Africa’s fintech ecosystem has been shifting from growth-at-all-costs to strategic consolidation for some time now, yet the very conditions making this surge possible also carry the seeds of instability. The opportunity is real, but it is born of turbulence.

Global caution, African upside

Across much of the world, higher borrowing costs have depressed valuations and slowed venture capital flows. Africa stands out because its fundamentals pull investors in. A median age under 20, rapid urbanisation, and widespread mobile penetration create a large, underbanked population that is adopting digital finance at scale.

Regulators have sharpened their frameworks in ways that both support growth and raise new hurdles. In June 2025, Egypt’s Central Bank issued a comprehensive licensing regime for payment service providers, requiring all domestic and foreign operators to obtain formal approval. In Nigeria, the PSP licence now demands ₦5 billion in capital with rejection rates near 40 per cent, while the FCCPC has ordered digital lenders to renew approvals within 90 days from July 2025. These measures give investors clearer rules, but they also raise compliance costs and underline that certainty is still elusive.

From volume to value

The raw data signals change. For years, African fintech was dominated by early-stage deals and duplicated models. Between 2018 and 2020, capital poured into digital wallets, lending apps, and payment processors. COVID pushed user adoption, but many companies still didn’t have paths to profit. By 2022-2023, as global markets cooled, funding dried up and weaker players faltered.

The rebound in 2025 looks different. With 29 M&A deals already announced, consolidation is accelerating. Stronger companies are buying rivals for licences, customer bases, or geographic reach. The funding pattern has shifted from hundreds of scattershot rounds to fewer, larger, more strategic transactions. Yet this wave is not purely about strategic vision. For many smaller players, M&A is an exit forced by a dwindling runway. The question is whether consolidation is creating value or just concentrating risk.

The infrastructure paradox and market dynamics

Africa’s digital backbone is stronger than before. PAPSS is live, and the African Currency Marketplace launched in July 2025, but adoption is limited, and currency volatility still undermines cross-border stability. Nigerian fintechs, for instance, often raise capital in dollars but earn in naira, creating structural mismatches that M&A cannot solve.

At the same time, consolidation is accelerating because investors demand profitability and credible exits. Founders are merging or selling to adapt, and regulators are pushing for stronger balance sheets, yet exits remain thin, as most still depend on foreign corporates, DFIs, or private equity rather than deep local capital markets. M&A is the main release valve, but it cannot fully substitute for the depth and liquidity that Africa’s capital markets still lack.

Nigeria, with nearly 70 percent fintech growth in 2024 despite FX and regulatory challenges, illustrates both the opportunity and the strain. It’s a crowded market that produces the most deals but also the fiercest pressure to consolidate.

Productive turbulence

Africa’s fintech M&A boom is real but turbulent. Opportunity, incomplete infrastructure, shifting regulation, and volatile currencies are not just risks to manage; they are the very forces that will separate winners from the rest.

The winners will not just be those who consolidate but those who can manage African realities: volatile currencies, fragmented infrastructure, and shifting rules. For investors, the challenge is distinguishing between value-creating acquisitions and distressed sales. For founders, it is building companies that can survive consolidation waves while proving sustainable economics.

Takeaway: Who this matters for

· Investors should see Africa as a countercyclical play, one of the few regions where fintech deal flow is accelerating, but they must underwrite carefully for FX volatility and regulatory whiplash.

· Founders must build with unit economics and compliance in mind. Scale alone will not guarantee survival in a consolidation-heavy market.

· Regulators and policymakers have a chance to shape the next phase by deepening capital markets and harmonising cross-border rules so that M&A delivers lasting value rather than short-term survival.

In a world where most markets are slowing, Africa is the exception. But exceptions are rarely simple. The surge in 2025 is both a signal of potential and a reminder that the continent’s future will be shaped by those who can thrive in complexity.

Nathan Olaníyì works at the intersection of finance, strategy, and analytics, helping businesses turn complex challenges into sustainable growth. With a background in investment banking, fintech strategy, and data-driven decision-making, he has advised on M&A, capital markets, and transformation initiatives across African and U.S. markets. At NCGrowth, he supports entrepreneurs and local businesses by helping them secure funding, refine strategy, and scale operations.