The controversy escalated after Vice President Kashim Shettima’s UN General Assembly speech on Gaza, which prompted U.S. comedian Bill Maher to label Nigeria’s situation a “genocide.” 

Senator Ted Cruz amplified the claim on X, alleging 50,000 Christians killed since 2009, 2,000 schools and 18,000 churches destroyed, and accusing the Nigerian government of complicity.

President Donald Trump subsequently redesignated Nigeria as a Country of Particular Concern, citing Open Doors’ report of 3,100 Christian deaths between October 2023 and September 2024. 

However, Open Doors also documented 2,320 Muslim deaths in the same period, with Fulani militants responsible for nearly a third of Christian killings.

Senior Open Doors researcher Frans Veerman told the BBC that while Christians remain targeted, “increasingly some Muslims are targeted by Fulani militants.”

The BBC investigation found that Cruz’s broader figures originated from the International Society for Civil Liberties and Rule of Law (InterSociety), a Nigerian NGO whose methodology relies on unverified “summary statistics” and estimates, rendering independent confirmation impossible.

Security analysts emphasized that jihadist attacks primarily affect Muslims and stem from complex factors including land disputes, banditry, and insurgency not systematic religious persecution.

The Nigerian government rejected the genocide narrative as a “gross misrepresentation,” insisting violence impacts all faiths equally.

Trump’s recent threats of action against Nigeria now rest on data the BBC deems unreliable, casting doubt on the foundation of U.S. policy shifts toward Africa’s most populous nation.