Bad News OnThe Oil Front For Nigeria

BadnewsontheoilfrontforNigeria,“OPECoiloutput declined in January ..”

News Report, February 6, 2025. Later in the release, tucked in the middle was this statement which should be of interest to all Nigerians.

“Specifically, thereport[byReuters] saidNigerianpro­ductionslippedby60,000bpd, thesurveyfound, reflecting lower exports, although domestic usage is increasing as the Dangote Refinery ramps up…This means the Nige­riangovernmentproduced1.42mbpdfrom1.484mbpdin December….NigeriaisstilltryingtomeetitsOPECquota of 1.5mbpdandisalsomakingeffortstoraiseproduction to two mbpd.”

Thisreportis alarmingforseveralreasons. InOctober lastyear, whenthecountryreached1.7mbpd, theMinister of State, in his characteristic way of reporting a flash in the pan as trend was reported to have boasted that Nigeria wouldbeproducing2mbpdof crudebyJanuary2025; and the figure on which the budget was based was realistic.

Independent analysts cautioned the Federal Govern­ment against using 2 mbpd as basis of the budget.

Nigerian leaders and their economic advisers are eternally, if repeatedly, self-deceptive.

Notwithstanding the additional request to raise the budget to N54 trillion, January crude production result is in; and, it has shredded the Budget.

A negative variance of almost 600,000 bpd means that the country must now produce 2.055 mbpd for the remaining eleven months to make up for the shortfall which January result has created.

That also implies that there would have been a signif­icantdollarrevenueshortfallinthemonthunderreview.

Living with the consequences of badleadership“Wis­dominpeopleconsistsof theanticipationof consequenc­es.

”NormanCousins, 1915-1990, VBQp274.Wehavehad mostly bad leaders since 1960. That should also tell us somethingaboutourselves. Atleast, since1992, whenthe firstNigerianEconomicSummitGroup, NESG, wascon­vened by late Chief Ernest Shonekan, 1936-2022, Head of GovernmentunderPresidentBabangida, andlaterHead of the Interim National Government, HING, the likely consequences of our over-reliance on crude oil revenue had been revealed to us. Since then, every government had paid lip service to diversification of our economy.

Goodeducationhadbeenidentifiedasthefoundation for success in an increasingly knowledge-based global economy.

Today, Nigeriacannotbecountedamongthetop tenin anyof thesectorswhichnowdefinetheglobaleconomy; certainly not in manufacturing, agriculture, computer and Artificial Intelligence or tourism.

“Nigeria’s GDP per capita shrinks to $835 – IMF”,Re­port, February 7, 2025.

That news report in February would have been re­ceived as a deadly blow by the ruling elite in another na­tion. Not Nigeria. For once, nobody even tried to refute it. Becausesilencemeansconsent, wehaveaccepted thatwe havebeensteadilyimpoverishedbyourleaderstowhom we still nevertheless pay our respects.

A few days before the release of that damning report, Buhari was still telling an audience of people that he left Nigeria better than he found it.

Amazing!!!

Therefusaltothrowaway thefeeding bottle, whichre­lianceoncrudeoilhasbecome, hasresultedinourrapidly worsening impoverishment.

In2025, theGDPpercapitaisnowestimatedtobe$835; in 2024, it was $877. But, in 2014, it was $3220. There is an obviousquestion. Istheresomethingwrong withus? Fuel AndFoolishnessrightnow, thefuelsupplyandpricesitu­ation is simply incomprehensible.

Nobody can budget or plan their fuel expenditure because from January 1 this year, at least four different prices have been announced.

At times, Dangote, the Nigerian National Petroleum CorporationLimited, NNPCLandIndependentMarket­ers fix different prices on the same day.

However, Nigeriaisonecountrywheretheprinciples of economics are not allowed to work by forces which profit from undermining it at all costs.

At the moment, we have a distorted free market in which a dominant supplier seeks to cripple the others and end up with a quasi-monopoly.

First, with our active support, the company received the promise of the Federal Government to have 650,000 barrels per day of crude allocated to its refinery.

Second, the Federal Government was arm-twisted to allow the company to pay in Naira for the crude. In exchange, Nigeriansaresupposedtoenjoyregularsupply of fuel at “reasonable” prices.

Unknown to us, we were embarking on the sort of road, paved with good intentions, that lead to hell.

Today confusion reigns; scarcity still occurs and we are paying prices far above what most of us thought imaginable forfuel producedlocally; andsometimes more expensivethanimportedfuel. Certainly, somethingmust be wrong.

Crisis Of Crude Supply To Refineries

“NNPCL’S four refineries constitute the elephants in the room.

”Thatwastheverdictof aformerNigerianManaging Director of an international oil company, asked why the Nigeria fuel situation remains chaotic.

Formorethantwentyyearstherefineriesgulpedtril­lionsof nairaandbillionsof dollarswithnexttonothing to show for it. Yet they are collectively entitled to collect 445,000 barrels per day of fuel.

The Federal Government bowed to the voice of the people andguaranteedDangote, as well as otherdomestic refineriescrude. Atthelastcount, thecommitmenttolocal refineries is close to 700,000 bpd.

Withmonthlyproductionhovering around1.5mbpd, thesignificantshortfallindollarrevenuewillreachcrisis proportions any time soon. You can’t eat your cake and have it.

Sir High Chief Olufemi Daramola, Kjw, My Saviour – 2note: The first part of this story ended last week with my arrest in Vanguard Office on Monday by the DSS.

Belowistherestof thedrama. Thecarconveyingme to Awolowo Road, Ikoyi was sandwiched between two cars in front and two cars behind; and I sat in the back seat stuffed between two mean-looking and over-sized armed men.

Forget escape. These guys were driving as if pos­sessed by the Devil. They probably were. Fast forward. I was at first given the honour of being placed in the Gani Fawehinmi room because the late human rights activist vacatedtheplacetwodaysbeforeIbecamethenewtenant.

But, whereasGaniwas onlybeing harassed, mycase was different. My front page Analysis had hit the nail on the head too hard for comfort.

It was assumed that I had insider information and the best thing was for me to be deleted. I was determined to go down fighting; but how and with what weapons? Almighty God provided everything needed.

The fellow assigned to my room turned out to be a great fan of Frankly Speaking.

He revealed the plans and offered to help me contact anyone who can help. Vanguard had tried and govern­ment had lied to Uncle Sam and the Editor that I was no longer in their custody; that I was interrogated, warned and released – thereby preparing the ground for my as­sassination.

Iwasatfirstscepticalabouttheoffertohelp; Ithought itmightbeatricktofindoutwhomyassociateswereand to arrest them.

Saturday was my day. So, like a drowning man who wouldgrabatanything floating, I acceptedtheoffertohelp.

He smuggled paper and biro into my room and I prepared to send a note. Then I asked myself: “who can I rely on to receive the note and who would act on it before Saturday?”

I had known Barrister Olufemi Daramola briefly, when he was the Secretary of the Lagos Island Branch of the Nigerian Bar Association, NBA, when they ap­proached Vanguard to help publish an NBA Directory of Lawyers.

Iwasassignedtheresponsibilityof gettingtheDirec­tory published and Chief Daramola was in charge for NBA, Lagos. The Law Directory we published was, so thorough, it became a reference material for determining seniority at the bar for years.

It also helped to weed out several fake lawyers. That was all. Yet, when my life was hanging on a decision, it was to him I turned; and he saved my life from Abacha.

Whenmylifewashangingonathreadof hope, Ihad to choose one person on who to gamble it. Something about Chief Daramola’s frankness and boldness during our meetings, while working on the Law Directory, told me that he was the best choice.