Arch Manning Odds & Saints QB Outlook: No. 1 Pick, Heisman

Arch Manning is going to be very much in the picture – not only this weekend but next weekend as well.

Manning is leading his top-ranked Texas Longhorns into battle on Saturday against the Ohio State Buckeyes. He starts the season priced at +600 to be the #1 pick in the NFL Draft next spring (not to mention the +600 favorite to win the Heisman), according to the folks at BetOnline.

Part of the logic around it might be that Manning is no guarantee to declare for the draft. After all, as of right now he has not been the regular starter for a college team. If he were to declare, there is almost no doubt that he would vault to the top of the list.

And who’d be there with the first crack at Manning?

The answer may come out of his own hometown.

Those people who have been watching the New Orleans Saints’ situation must have been wondering in the off-season whether they were going to do something to upgrade their quarterback situation in the wake of the retirement of Derek Carr. We know that they drafted Tyler Shough of Louisville in the second round, but there was nothing they did in the way of veteran help that they went out and acquired.

Shough is a guy who emerged late in the game; at the beginning of the draft process he was considered by some to be a possible “UFA” (undrafted free agent). But he battled his way through auditions, and his experience (seven college seasons with three programs – Oregon and Texas Tech, in addition to Louisville) must have counted for something with the Saints, who took him a lot higher than most people expected.

Spencer Rattler, who at one time was the most sought-after high school quarterback in the country, did not necessarily have an impressive rookie season, with 57% completions and four touchdowns against five interceptions.

And so it was going to be a one-on-one battle to be the starter in New Orleans, with Jake Haener on his own campaign to hold onto a roster spot.

Saints’ QB – And the winner is……

During the preseason competition Rattler mostly practiced low-risk passing, completing just a shade under 70% for about 6.9 yards an attempt, which admittedly is an improvement upon the 5.8 he exhibited as a rookie.

Shough completed two-thirds of his passes for 6.2 yards an attempt and tossed a pick-six.

It wasn’t as if first-year coach Kellen Moore had an embarrassment of riches at his disposal.

So maybe you can say that he took the lesser of the two evils.

To Moore’s credit, he did not have any preconceived notion as to who should be the starting signal-caller. He wanted to wait until everything played out, and he did.

When he made the decision to go with Rattler as the starter, he did go through the whole business of talking about how the position is open to competition from week to week, or any of that nonsense, the way some coaches might have. Again, that’s to his credit. He thinks he has somebody who’s going to take the bull by the horns and be a leader.

Moore felt that the way Rattler responded to a trying season in 2024, which included a coaching change, was “a tremendous testament to his work ethic.”

The odds on the Saints – not favorable

Obviously not everyone is impressed by the Saints’ situation. And the speculation is that this has all the makings of a classic “tank.” The reward at the end, ideally, would be Manning, regardless of whether he leads Texas to the national title. New Orleans is the town where the kid grew up.

Shough is +3300 to be the Offensive Rookie of the year. That’s how it’s listed at BetOnline.

The Saints open the season next Sunday against the Arizona Cardinals. They are getting 6.5 points at home. And the over-under on regular season wins is 4.5 (over -145, under +115). They are a distant +1600 to win the NFC South, which is perhaps the weakest of all the divisions.

So it’s a great setup to get Manning, if that’s what they’re thinking about.