Agric sector leads Nigeria’s growth as business confidence rises

Nigeria’s business environment posted modest growth in September 2025, driven largely by a rebound in the agriculture sector, according to the latest NESG–Stanbic IBTC Business Confidence Monitor (BCM).

The BCM’s Current Business Performance Index rose slightly to 107.9 points, up from 107.3 in August, signaling continued expansion in business activity.

The report attributes this improvement to a strong harvest season and relative macroeconomic stability that buoyed optimism among firms.

“The agriculture sector, which had contracted in August, recorded a sharp rebound, rising from 95.6 to 107.3 points, marking the strongest recovery among all sectors.”

“Crop production and forestry drove this expansion, aided by favourable rainfall, improved access to inputs, and ongoing government support. Livestock, fishing, and agro-allied activities also sustained moderate growth,” the NESG report added.

Authors of the report disclosed that the manufacturing sector maintained expansion at 102.5 points but slowed from August’s momentum, dampened by erratic power supply, high diesel costs, and persistent input shortages.

Meanwhile, it said non-manufacturing industries, including oil, gas, and construction, eased slightly to 114.5 points, and trade slipped to 107.6 points amid insecurity and supply chain disruptions.

The services sector, however, strengthened to 108.5 points, supported by gains in finance, real estate, and professional services.

Generally, the report said the key BCM drivers to this growth include investment, exports, access to credit, and prices, with marginal gains relative to August 2025, pointing to improving sentiment in capital formation and external trade.

“Importantly, recent improvements in cost of doing business and input prices suggest a gradual moderation of inflationary pressures on firms,” it added.

However, NESG said this positive trend remains fragile, as financing constraints, erratic electricity supply, high commercial property costs, unclear policy signals, and persistent insecurity continue to undermine business confidence and investment appetite.

According to the report, the Future Business Expectation Index rose by 134.5 points. The trade sector led with the highest optimism (162.7 points), followed by manufacturing (158.4 points).

“The improved outlook is driven by anticipated gains in the overall business environment, including expectations for an improved business situation, higher operating profits, a rise in production levels, increased cash flow, improved supply orders, and stronger demand conditions,” it said.