Data from Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada (IRCC) has indicated that 31,610 individuals with valid post-graduation work permits (PGWPs) as at September 30, will have their visas expire by December 31 this year.

Overall, at the start of 2025, almost a million temporary residents in Canada have faced or are currently facing visa expiry this year.

A breakdown of the rough estimate shows that 300,000 persons on temporary foreign worker program (TFWP), 200,000 (PGWP) holders and more than 400,000 temporary residents need to renew or adjust their status.

This looming expiry date has cast a shadow over the future prospects of many graduates who are in debt for overseas student fees with the intention of securing permanent residency.

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However, immigration experts advise that anyone in that situation may change status by renewing, converting to permanent residency, or obtaining another type of permit. Hence expiration does not always mean ‘out of status’.

According to IRCC data, of the roughly 115,000 PGWP holders whose visas already expired sometime in 2025, only 12 per cent successfully had their work permits extended or moved to an alternative permit.

This figure does not include those who transitioned directly to permanent residency, which accounted for a further 12 per cent of new permanent residents in 2022.

The issue has prompted close scrutiny from economists and immigration experts, particularly given the lack of clarity on how many temporary residents ultimately remain in the country after their visas lapse.

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Benjamin Tal, deputy chief economist, CIBC  highlighted the magnitude of the unauthorised population in an April report, saying, “How many expired visa-holders remain and are still residents of Canada? In previous research, we estimated that number to be close to one million, with the overwhelming majority being expired temporary visa-holders who arrived in Canada legally, as long as a generation (or two) ago.”

The latest figures shows temporary residents account for 7.3 per cent of Canada’s overall population (three million individuals), though this figure excludes those who remain on expired visas while seeking a path to permanent status. The federal government intends to reduce this percentage to 5 per cent by the end of 2027.

The permit deadline and deportation risk
International graduates are at serious risk of deportation unless their applications for an extension or a new permit are approved before the deadline.

If a work permit expires without extension, an individual has 90 days to apply for restoration, during which time they must cease working but may legally remain in Canada. However, if that 90-day grace period elapses without action, the individual must leave the country immediately.

Failure to comply could result in deportation, severely complicating any future attempts to enter.

IRCC representatives have stated that it does not have an estimate of how many people are currently in the country on expired PGWPs, but stressed, “Once someone receives a permit, they must abide by the condition of their permit, including the legal requirement to leave Canada at the end of the authorised period of stay.”

Last year, the Canada Border Services Agency deported approximately 18,000 persons, though a specific breakdown by permit type is not disclosed.

Surge in students and policy debate
The current crisis stems from a massive surge in international student recruitment over the last five years, largely to cover pandemic-era job shortages. The number of overseas students soared from around 350,000 in 2015 to over a million by 2023.

PGWPs, which are one- to three-year visas, mirrored this growth, rising from 33,615 to 240,200 over the same period, a staggering increase of more than 600 per cent.

While the number of expiring PGWPs this year is sharply down from the 70,000 due to lapse in the same period last year, the conversion rate remains low.