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I t is to draw attention to Nigeria’s dangerously fragile security situation that the title of this article likens the country to Haiti— to emphasize why Nigeria must avoid descending into similar chaos.

Nigeria And Haiti: A Disturbing Comparison

Reports show that Haiti is overrun by gang violence. Armed groups control much of Port-au-Prince. In 2024 alone:

•Over 5,600 people were killed

 •Nearly 1,500 were kidnapped

 •5.5 million people faced acute food insecurity, including 2 million in emergency hunger.

 Does this not mirror Nigeria’s situation, where millions live in Internally Displaced Persons (IDP) camps across the North?

 Brazil has also faced a wave of kidnappings for ransom—“express kidnappings”—where victims were forced to withdraw cash or make digital transfers.

 Incidentally, Nigeria is currently witnessing similar crimes, even involving rogue police officers who compel motorists to pay bribes via PoS after contrived traffic stops as a recent incident close to the Law School at Ozumba Mbadiwe intersection as recent as last week reveals.

Recent events in Brazil, including the 2001 kidnapping of Patricia Abravanel and the 2008 Eloá Pimentel tragedy, underscore the dangers of mismanaging hostage situations. Nigeria must draw lessons from these cases as terrorists are increasingly taunting security forces on social media, attempting to lure them into reckless confrontations that could endanger abducted schoolchildren.

Since the surge in mass kidnappings in 2014, President Tinubu stands out as the only Commander-in-Chief to personally lead a security “war room,” as shown in images and footage circulating in the media. His hands-on approach has produced early results: the rescue of 38 abducted worshippers in Kwara State and 50 schoolchildren in Niger State within 48–60 hours. Although some victims in Kebbi and Niger are still in captivity, these outcomes suggest that when the presidency prioritizes security, progress follows. It may be recalled that US President Barack Obama was physically present in the war room to direct the targeting and neutralization of the alleged mastermind of the 9/11 bombing by Al-Qaeda terrorists of the World Trade Centre in New York and the Pentagon in Virginia.

Tinubu’s decision to suspend his attendance at the G-20 summit in South Africa and the African Union meeting in Angola to focus on the kidnapping crisis has boosted his leadership optics. This contrasts sharply with previous administrations, which typically responded by merely directing service chiefs to “relocate to ground zero.”

After ordering Defence Minister Bello Matawalle to relocate to Kebbi, Tinubu personally took charge when another mass abduction occurred in Niger State. While some critics claim the war room lacked enough military presence, the mix of communication and intelligence specialists may explain the improved outcomes.

My experience as a Delta State commissioner during the era of militancy driven by resource agitators between 2003 and 2007 taught me that security cannot be left to armed forces alone. Community-level intelligence—“see something, say something”—is indispensable. Hence, I set up an information office in all the local government headquarters in the state to obtain first-hand information from the grassroots.

President Tinubu’s approval of 30,000 new police recruits is therefore a welcome step. I have long argued that Nigeria needs at least 100,000 additional officers to meet UN standards of 222 to 100,000 people which is roughly one officer per 450 people. These were contained in my piece published on June 17, titled, ‘Democracy, GDP Growth, Poverty, And Insecurity In Nigeria’.

In that June 17 intervention, I made the case this way:

“Apparently, while President Tinubu has recorded significant progress in other segments of society as earlier catalogued, he appears to be confounded and overwhelmed by the alarming scourge of insecurity as evidenced by the escalation of killings in the past couple of years, especially in Benue and Plateau states”. Continuing, I made the case that: “The Benue State Governor Hyacinth Alia’s allegations that the killing of villagers in his state by heavily armed bandits who also burn the houses resulting in the villagers fleeing into the bushes while abandoning their homes and which is often followed by the arrival of herdsmen and their cattle should be investigated.”

I argued further thus: “That would help determine if indeed the attacks have international dimensions/elements and the invasion and seizure of our lands to be occupied by foreigners which is the unfolding scenario, is not a very high security threat to the sovereignty of Nigeria since the Wagner group (Russian private military contractors for hire) and other foreign mercenaries are currently operating in neighboring countries like Niger Republic, Mali and Burkina Faso which have withdrawn their membership of ECOWAS -a regional organization serving the common interests of the nations that are located in the region”. Additionally, I stated in that piece that: “In light of the above, it would appear as if instead of insecurity going down, it has been rising under President Tinubu’s watch.

 That is not good optics for the incumbent administration.” Then I counseled that “As such, tackling insecurity needs to be prioritized by President Tinubu. It is a promise that he has made for the umpteenth time but the talk has not been transformed into action.

“So, I would like to suggest that in the same manner that President Tinubu has significantly tamed inflation, stabilized the naira and ended petrol pump price subsidy, insecurity that is making the Benue and Nasarawa states look like killing fields, metaphorically, should compel the president, commander-in-chief of the armed forces of Nigeria, Tinubu, to don his thinking cap and figure out, an out-of- the-box way, how to guarantee the security of the lives and properties of the Nigerians living in Benue and Nasarawa states who have been under siege by vicious outlaws without protection of the federal government which our compatriots in those targeted states are entitled.”

 In retrospect that was a fair assessment. If the advice had been acted upon at that point, perhaps our country might not have been labelled a CPC on November 30 by President Trump.

With vast ungoverned spaces, such as those in Niger and Kwara states, criminals will continue to find safe havens unless policing capacity is strengthened.

Now pushed to elevate security to his top priority—spurred by President Trump’s CPC designation and the wave of church attacks and kidnappings shaking the country— Tinubu appears more focused than ever on ending insecurity in Nigeria. If this momentum is sustained, the era of impunity enjoyed by terrorists, insurgents, and bandits may finally be drawing to a close.

If that happens through a new era of collaboration between the US and Nigeria as the congressman Chris Smith’s bill co-sponsored by Bill Huizenga, Gus Bilirakis and Maria Elvira aimed at holding Nigeria accountable for its human rights record, as the congressman pointed out, the law is not meant to punish Nigeria but to enhance diplomatic efforts, better still it could improve Nigeria-US relations.

 If President Tinubu’s administration scales this hurdle by warming up its relationship with the US which has been tending towards being cold and recovering all the hostages compared to the Chibok girls who have remained missing since 2014, he would be credited for turning adversity into opportunity which would further reinforce his reputation as a political maverick.

Next week, I will discuss the prospect of beyond relying on Nigeria Security and Civil Defence Corps, licensing private security firms to perform guard duties for VIPs as the president has commendably directed that a significant number of the police which some estimate to be up to 52% of the force should be deployed to fight insecurity. It is necessary to close the vacuum before attempting to close the security gap in the hinterlands could result in another such as the kidnapping of VIPs who would be stripped of police protection in the cities triggering VIP kidnapping.

• Magnus Onyibe, an entrepreneur, public policy analyst, author, democracy advocate, development strategist, and alumnus of the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy, Tufts University, Massachusetts, USA, is a Commonwealth Institute scholar and a former commissioner in the Delta State government. He sent this piece from Lagos.