Bitcoin is bleeding badly, and if you are refreshing your portfolio app with one eye closed today, you are not alone. The mood across the crypto market has recently shifted from the “Uptober” euphoria of just a few weeks ago to a sober, gut-wrenching fear.
Since the infamous “Black Friday” crash in October, triggered by the sudden geopolitical shock of those tariff tweets by President Trump, the market hasn’t just bled; it has haemorrhaged. We watched nearly $20 billion in open interest vanish in hours, and just when we thought the floor was in, with the end of the US government shutdown last week, the floor gave way. Last Friday, Bitcoin sliced through the psychological $95,000 support. Earlier today, it capitulated further, breaking below $90,000 for the first time in several months.
This leaves investors staring at a sea of red and asking the only two questions that matter right now: Is the bull run officially over? And should I cut my losses before I get burnt?
To understand where we are going, we have to admit where we are. The crash that began on Black Friday wasn’t just a technical blip but a macroeconomic reality check. The combination of renewed trade tensions, the Federal Reserve’s hesitation on rate cuts, and a death cross on the technical charts has created a perfect storm for bears.
But the most damning metric isn’t the price; it’s the volume. We are seeing massive outflows from spot ETFs. The institutional smart money that carried Bitcoin to its all-time highs in Q3 is de-risking. When BlackRock and Fidelity pause their buying, the retail market catches a cold.
Bitcoin dumps: correction or bear market?
This is the most divisive moment in the 2025 cycle. In the bear case, pessimists argue that the 2025 bull run was front-loaded. They point to the fact that Bitcoin has effectively erased its year-to-date gains. When an asset drops 30% from its peak and loses key moving averages, traditional finance defines that as a bear market. If the $88,000 support level fails to hold this week, the door opens to a retest of the $75,000 region.
Read also: Africa missing as Singapore tops global crypto usability index in 2025
While for the bull case, veterans of the 2017 and 2021 cycles see a different picture. This flush-out resembles the mid-cycle corrections that historically precede the violent parabolic phase. On-chain data suggests that while short-term holders are panic-selling, long-term whales have slowed their selling. The fundamentals haven’t changed; only the leverage has. We just witnessed a massive deleveraging event, which, painful as it is, often acts as a forest fire that clears the way for new growth.
What do I think: hold or dump?
If you are asking, should I sell or continue to hold?”, the answer depends entirely on your timeline.
If you’re a trader, the trend is your friend, and right now, the trend is down. Catching a falling knife is dangerous. The market is currently in no man’s land, and volatility is likely to remain high. If you are overleveraged, reducing exposure is not panic but risk management.
While for the investor, if your horizon is 12 to 18 months, panic selling here is historically the wrong move. Selling now means you are providing liquidity to the institutions that will likely buy these coins back at a discount. Remember, the market is designed to transfer wealth from the impatient to the patient. If you believed in Bitcoin at its $126,000 ATH, the asset is mathematically more attractive at $89,000, provided your thesis on digital gold remains intact.
Truth be told, the 2025 bull run is on life support, but it isn’t dead yet. Remember, crypto always bounces back, but for that to happen, Bitcoin needs to reclaim $95,000 quickly to stop the bleeding. Until then, sit on your hands, close the charts, and remember, the most profitable trades are often the hardest ones to hold.
