Cocoa output seen shrinking on weather, disease

…Farmgate price down 44% as season commences

Nigeria’s 2024/2025 main-crop cocoa output is set to decline due to poor weather and a black pod disease outbreak in a major growing region.

Farmers told BusinessDay that black-pod disease had attacked cocoa farms in Ikom, Cross River State, which accounts for 26 percent of the country’s total production, noting that this has badly affected output from the state.

They added that short heavy rainfall has also affected output across cocoa-producing states.

Adeola Adegoke, national president of the Cocoa Farmers Association of Nigeria, said that production may shrink marginally or remain the same when compared to 2024 due to black pod disease and poor weather in cocoa-producing states.

“Two months ago, there was a black pod disease outbreak in Ikom – a community that contributes over 20 percent to total production,” Adegoke said in an interview.

He noted that poor weather also impacted production across major growing states as the country experienced heavy rains within a shorter period. “We are likely to see between five to 10 percent decline in output,” he projected.

Nigeria is the world’s fourth top grower of cocoa with 315,000 metric tons (MT), the International Cocoa Organization (ICCO) said in its third quarterly production bulletin. A 10 percent decline means the output will dip by 31,500MT.

However, ICCO’s forecast shows Nigeria’s production will reach 350,000MT in the 2024/2025 season.

Adegoke added that the impact of the disease outbreak and poor weather conditions would have been disastrous if not for the rehabilitation of old trees and influx of new farmers who entered the industry owing to price surge in previous years.

Decline in prices

The farm gate prices of cocoa, Nigeria’s flagship export produce, have declined 44 percent, from N12.5 million in 2024 to N7 million this year, BusinessDay’s analysis of prices in key producing states shows.

In the international market, the price of cocoa beans has also declined by 31.4 percent year-on-year on weak demand and sluggish recovery following price spikes of previous years.

A metric ton sells for $5,923 at the time of writing as against $8,638 in the same period in 2024, according to data from the ICCO.

“With what I have seen in major cocoa-producing states, there is going to be a decline in our production,” said Mufutau Abolarinwa, national president of the Cocoa Association of Nigeria, in a telephone response to questions.

“This is going to affect our cocoa revenue for the year,” he added.

Nigeria earned N1.2 trillion from cocoa in 2024 and exported 307, 249 tons of raw quality beans, according to data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) and the International Trade Centre (ITC).

Abolarinwa attributed the decline to the black pod disease outbreak in Ikom during the early part of the season. “You know it is one of the top growing regions for cocoa and anything that happens there affects production,” he said, referring to Ikom in Cross River state.

The country has two cocoa harvest seasons, which include the smaller mid-crop from April to June, and the main crop from October to December.

The main crop accounts for about 70 percent of Nigeria’s cocoa output, while the mid-crop accounts for 30 percent of the total production for the season.

Dokun Thompson, Oloni of Eti-Oni and founder of the International Cocoa Diplomacy, noted that every season has its challenges. He said farmers are happy that it is black pod fungi, and not the swollen shoot virus, which is more dangerous.

“The black pod we experienced at the start of the year originated from Cameroon and we were able to tackle it.” “Although it still affected the season.”