In the past 48 hours, diplomatic tensions between the US and
Nigeria have spiralled from muted strain to open confrontation. Trump — who has
accused the Nigerian government of ignoring “Christian genocide” in the country
— has now gone beyond remarks to issuing a threat of military action.

“If the Nigerian government continues to allow the killing
of Christians, the USA will immediately stop all aid and assistance to Nigeria,
and may very well go into that now disgraced country, ‘guns-a-blazing’, to
completely wipe out the Islamic terrorists who are committing these horrible
atrocities,” Trump wrote.

“I am hereby instructing our Department of War to prepare
for possible action. If we attack, it will be fast, vicious, and sweet, just
like the terrorist thugs attack our cherished Christians. Warning: the Nigerian
government better move fast!”

Almost instantly, Pete Hegseth, US secretary of war,
responded, saying his department is preparing for possible action.

Those who can read between the lines, however, are not
convinced that Trump is worried about genocide or persecution. Diplomatic
sources told TheCable that he is after a pound of flesh after feeling slighted
by the Nigerian government over a number of issues.

1. NIGERIA’S TWO-STATE STAND ON GAZA

Since the resumed Israeli hostilities in Gaza, Nigeria’s
stance has been for an immediate ceasefire, backing a two-state solution and
condemning the humanitarian toll.

Nigeria has repeatedly called for a peaceful resolution and
has aligned with a broad international push for a ceasefire and humanitarian
access. Those positions have been expressed at international fora, including
Arab/Islamic summits and the United Nations General Assembly (UNGA).

US foreign policy is pro-Israel. So, when a country like
Nigeria, a major African democracy with a significant Christian population and
a beneficiary of US aid, takes a stance seen as anti-Israeli, it is like a slap
in the face for Trump and the broader American establishment alike.

Diplomatic sources told TheCable that Israel activated its
Washington, DC lobby after Nigeria’s call for a two-state solution at the UNGA,
with Ted Cruz, the American senator and Israel’s chief supporter, leading the
charge and drafting legislation to categorise Nigeria as a country where
Christians are persecuted.

2. NIGERIA’S REFUSAL TO ACCEPT DEPORTEES

The Trump administration has moved aggressively to reduce
irregular immigration and to deport non-citizens from the US. Part of that
policy has involved pressuring third countries — including some in Africa — to
take back nationals or other foreign deportees. But Nigeria vehemently rejected
that request.

Deportations pose both humanitarian and security challenges.
Sudden, large-scale returns of individuals — including those with irregular
status, criminal records, or fragile mental and physical health after complex
journeys — require vetting, reintegration support, and, in some cases, legal
processing.

For Nigeria, which already contends with strained social
services, security threats such as banditry and terrorism, and mass
deportations carried out on short notice, would place a significant strain on
the country.

Part of the reason the US imposed visa restrictions on
Nigeria was the country’s refusal to accept asylum seekers. A similar
restriction was imposed on Ghana but as you as the West African country buckled
and accepted deportees, Trump restored approval of five-year visa for
Ghanaians.

3. THEY DON’T LIKE OUR ROMANCE WITH CHINA AND RUSSIA

Nigeria, under Tinubu, has actively courted deeper economic
and security ties with China and — to a lesser but notable extent — Russia,
with growing trade. Nigeria is also a partner member of BRICS, which Trump has
threatened with tariffs.

China offers investment, credit lines and fast delivery on
infrastructure; non-Western military partners can offer quicker procurement and
fewer political conditions than some.

Deeper Nigerian ties with Beijing and Moscow are a problem
for America. First, close relationships with China or Russia will limit US
influence over Nigerian policy choices on security, trade and diplomatic
alignments.

For Trump and his allies, the optics of Nigeria’s
partnerships feed into a broader narrative that portrays US partners as
defecting to rivals.

4. QUEST FOR AIR BASE IN NIGERIA

Over the past year, there have been reports and social media
claims suggesting the US is seeking to establish a military base in Nigeria and
expand its footprint in West Africa. Both countries have denied the claims.

The recent scaling back of Western military presence in
three junta-led Sahel countries — Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger — coupled with
the expanding influence of Russia and China through defence partnerships,
TheCable understands, is behind the quest for a military base in Nigeria.

Even without formal plans for a base, many Nigerians suspect
the US wants a lasting military presence. The US’s interest is driven by a
desire to maintain influence in West Africa.

Culled: TheCable