Tinubu might be Nigeria’s best president

A few days ago, the governor of Anambra State and former
governor of Nigeria’s central bank, Chukwuma Soludo, and the Director-General
of the World Trade Organization (WTO) and former coordinating minister of
Nigeria’s economy, Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala, endorsed President Tinubu’s economic
reforms. These are big endorsements coming from people who understand
macroeconomics and developmental economics.

“You cannot really improve an economy unless it’s stable. So
he has to be given the credit for the stability of the economy. So the reforms
have been in the right direction. What is needed next is growth’’, Ngozi
Okonjo-Iweala remarked. Also, Chukwuma Soludo told newsmen after he paid a
visit to President Bola Tinubu last Tuesday that he was impressed by the ‘’bold
steps [the President] has taken in areas of the economy and structural reforms”
and encouraged the President to stay the course.

The World Bank has also acknowledged the growing stability
of the naira, crediting it to the administration’s market-reflective and
unified forex policies which it says has resulted in Nigeria’s accretion of
foreign reserve. (In one year, Nigeria’s net foreign exchange reserves jumped
from $3.99 billion (2023) to $23.11 billion (2024) which is a +479% increase.
Within this period, gross reserve rose to $40.19 billion).

Food inflation, transport and energy costs, unemployment and
deteriorating purchasing power – which were experienced in the country after
the floating of the naira and the removal of fuel subsidy – exacerbated
hardship for the everyday Nigerian. But these are abating. Currently, at the
micro-level what we see is a case of short-term pain for potential long-term
gain. Macroeconomic stabilization is a necessary foundation for economic
prosperity (this was also affirmed by WTO’s DG after her interaction with the
President). Actually, the micro-economy will start looking good only when
inflation is drastically reduced and real wages/incomes rise. Fortunately, the
just released inflation figures show that the current administration is getting
there as headline inflation seems to be abating from a high of 33.4% in July
2024 to 21.88% in July 2025. (Though the CPI rebasing and methodological
updates lowered inflation estimates, inflation has been gradually easing since
mid-2025).

President Tinubu’s broad economic vision to make Nigeria a
one trillion economy in 7–8 years, with rising incomes, lower poverty, and
global competitiveness can be achieved if he stays the course. This vision
seems to guide his economic reforms and policies. Though this vision seems
daunting, it is achievable. To achieve this, Nigerian needs sustained
productivity and GDP growth (double digit growth rates are needed and the 7%
anticipated growth in 2027 by FGN will need to be greatly increased in
subsequent years), which would be driven by improved electricity, logistics and
regulatory reforms. The current tax reforms, the disinflation trajectory and
forex stability being pursued by the central bank, investments in human capital
development and security measures being taken by the administration are core
enablers for this anticipated GDP growth. (The U.S. State Department has
approved a potential $346 million foreign military sale to Nigeria, including
precision munitions—such as bombs, rockets, and bomb components).
Fundamentally, Nigerian banks need to be robust in order to support these
envisioned increased economic activities. The current banking recapitalization
exercise by Nigerian banks is a well-thought-out strategy to support the
President’s vision of a one trillion-dollar economy.

With a one trillion-dollar economy and a population of 230 –
250 million people, the GDP per capita of Nigeria would be approximately
$4,000–$4,350 (which is way larger than today’s figures of less than $1,000).
This implies an improved quality of life for Nigerians. To understand what this
means in terms of the envisaged quality of life, compare this figure with the
current GDP per capital of South Africa – the largest economy in Africa – which
is currently around $6,253.

With a one trillion-dollar economy and a 15–18% tax-to-GDP
ratio, public revenues would reach $150–$180 billion (compare this to today’s
figures which is less than $18 billion). A $180 billion yearly revenue, if well
managed, is enough to fund a sustained capex of $100 billion/year without
fiscal stress. A one trillion-dollar economy would support multiple $10–$50
billion revenue streams from firms across finance, telco, cement, FMCG, energy,
logistics, tech, and agribusiness. A one trillion-dollar economy would be
powered by 25 -35GW of electricity as against the less than 5GW delivered by
the grid as of today.

In terms of everyday life, here is how a one trillion-dollar
economy will look like to the average Nigerian: A larger and vibrant formal
sector will absorb millions of college/university/polytechnic graduates; median
formal wages would rise and be able to sustain decent lifestyles; SME finance
would become cheaper and easier to get; forex rates would be more predictable;
the quality of healthcare for the average Nigerian would improve drastically;
energy and transport costs would stabilize; 20-30 year mortgages would be
available with single digit interest rates to many Nigerians; there would be a
proliferation of 4G/5G fibre optic cables and data center infrastructure in
major cities across the country; there would be increased student loans for
smart students from poor and middle income families. The list is endless.

Actually, the Nigeria of our dream would require hard work.
President Tinubu is on track but he needs all the criticism and supports that
would help him achieve his vision.