Analysts say the anticipated dual list­ing would radically expand the Nigerian Exchange (NGX), attract unprecedent­ed liquidity, and significantly advance President Bola Tinubu’s drive toward a $1 trillion economy.

The expectations intensified after Bismarck Rewane, Managing Director of Financial Derivatives Company Ltd., projected that both companies could join the NGX as early as next year. His view is reinforced by broad analyst consensus that a Dangote–NNPCL listing wave would be the most consequential financial milestone in Nigeria in two decades.

 While the projections remain contingent on operational and regulatory readiness, experts in­sist the scale and impact of such listings would fundamentally al­ter Nigeria’s economic and mar­ket trajectory.

Central to this outlook is the size of the companies. Dangote Refinery, valued at about $32 billion, is the world’s largest sin­gle-train refinery with the capac­ity to refine up to 650,000 barrels per day.

NNPCL, with upstream, midstream, downstream and gas assets valued informally be­tween $30 billion and $60 billion, remains the country’s most stra­tegic national asset.

The entry of both giants could push the NGX’s total capitalisa­tion to levels never previously imagined.

Rewane argued that with new entrants such as the $32 billion Dangote Refinery and a potential NNPCL listing, Nigeria’s stock market could grow from around 20 percent of GDP to nearly 80 percent in the medium term—a leap that would transform the ex­change into a dominant engine of capital formation and long-term investment.

This single projection, an­alysts say, highlights the scale of change possible within the market’s structure if the listings materialise.

Market experts agree that a partial listing of Dangote Refin­ery—perhaps 10 to 20 percent— would unlock billions of dollars instantly into the NGX. Coupled with an NNPCL public float, it would deliver the biggest liquid­ity injection in Nigerian market history.

“It would be like MTN, Airtel, Seplat and the banks coming at once,” said Modupe Fabamise, a capital markets lecturer at the University of Lagos. “This is a structural shift, not a routine listing.”

The dual listing is also expect­ed to attract significant foreign portfolio investment. Global funds that exited Nigeria due to FX restrictions and liquidity shortages may return if large, globally recognised entities be­come available.

According to Kole Aluko, port­folio manager at TopBridge Asset Management, “Foreign investors want scale, depth and transparen­cy. The listings of these national champions would immediately reset Nigeria’s investment nar­rative.”

Analysts also argue that the potential listings align perfectly with the Tinubu administration’s economic reforms, especially ef­forts to unlock private capital, deepen industrial output and diversify foreign exchange earn­ings.

The operational ramp-up of Dangote Refinery is already expected to reduce Nigeria’s dependence on imported fuel, grow petrochemical exports and improve the country’s external accounts. NNPCL, on its part, has been making incremental moves toward better trans­parency, publishing audited accounts and attempting to op­erate more like a commercially driven entity.

Economists say the listings could strongly support the gov­ernment’s $1 trillion GDP ambi­tion by expanding the financial system’s capacity to fund large-scale investments. By unlocking public participation in energy, refining, petrochemicals and gas assets, the listings would expand local wealth creation and boost tax and dividend flows to govern­ment.

More importantly, they would reposition the NGX as a central pillar of Nigeria’s growth strat­egy, similar to how major state and private corporations fuelled capital markets in South Africa, Saudi Arabia and Indonesia.

For ordinary Nigerians, the benefits are equally significant. A public listing of NNPCL would, for the first time, allow citizens to own shares in the country’s most strategic oil assets.

Analysts liken it to Saudi Ar­amco’s 2019 IPO, which became a national investment milestone.

“This will democratise wealth creation,” noted Fabamise. “It gives every Nigerian a chance to benefit from national assets tra­ditionally outside public reach.”

Market participants compare the potential impact to the land­mark 2005 banking consolida­tion—but insist it would be far bigger.

According to Oseme Okon, an investment banking expert at Vec­tor Securities, “Bank consolida­tion redefined the financial sector. This will redefine the entire econ­omy because it shifts Nigeria’s market from being bank-heavy to energy-and-industry-heavy.”

Still, there are notable chal­lenges. For NNPCL, analysts in­sist that improved governance, resolution of legacy liabilities, and transparent financial report­ing are essential before a listing.

Dangote Refinery must demonstrate stable output, con­sistent supply chain operations and predictable cash flows. Mar­ket conditions such as exchange rate volatility, inflation and in­terest rate dynamics could also shape the timing of the offerings. Political will—especially for a par­tial privatisation of NNPCL—re­mains another key factor.

Despite the risks, analysts believe 2026 is realistic. The ongoing FX reforms, banking recapitalisation, expected mac­roeconomic stabilisation and increasing appetite from both retail and institutional inves­tors create a favourable back­drop for mega listings. “2026 gives both entities enough time to finalise valuation frame­works, governance structures, board reforms and regulatory documentation,” said Samuel Adigun, senior analyst at Afr­invest Research.

If realised, the listings may push the NGX toward a historic milestone of N100 trillion market capitalisation, making it one of Africa’s largest and most liquid exchanges. Oil and gas—cur­rently underweighted on the NGX—would overnight become its dominant sector. Retail partic­ipation would surge, institutional portfolios would rebalance, and Nigeria’s regional influence with­in African capital markets would strengthen, potentially challeng­ing South Africa’s Johannesburg Stock Exchange.

In essence, the possible entry of Dangote Refinery and NNP­CL in 2026 represents more than a financial event; it offers Nigeria a rare opportunity to reshape its market structure, deepen invest­ment capacity and accelerate na­tional economic reforms.

By potentially pushing market capitalisation from 20 percent of GDP to nearly 80 percent, the NGX is positioned for a once-in-a-gener­ation structural leap.

As analysts widely agree, if both listings proceed, 2026 may be remembered as the year Ni­geria’s capital market finally stepped into a new era—bigger, deeper, more liquid, and central to the country’s journey toward a trillion-dollar economy.