2027: Atiku’s best but last chance

By Jack Okude

The year 2027 provides former Vice President and presidential candidate of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP),  Alhaji Atiku Abubakar, the best chance of realising his life-long ambition of becoming the President of Nigeria.

The next round of elections offers Atiku the best opportunity so far. All the odds seem to favour him, with the only stumbling blocks being the power of incumbency, challenge of party platform and the general belief that it is the turn of the South.

The odds that worked in favour of Bola Ahmed Tinubu in 2023, like the push for a southern President and the split in the opposition camps, while they exist and may matter in 2027, are not considered with the same fervency as was the case in the previous dispensation.

Atiku has contested six presidential elections. He has shown capacity and brawn but in no other election do his chances seem brighter than in the next election.

In 1993, when Atiku first ran for the presidency, he stood only a nimble chance of making any impact as he was under the shadows of a bigger political figure and was seen as the alter ego who could only play a role when his principal, Shehu Musa Yaradua, delegated to him or if by some reasons was not able to contest himself.

His coming third at the SDP primary and his stepping down for MKO Abiola, which helped the latter to win, registered him as a force to reckon with.

By 2003, a golden opportunity came knocking for Atiku as a sitting Vice President, coupled with the support he had from the majority of the governors of that time, the clout he built as VP and the enormous goodwill he enjoyed across parties.

But he failed to grab the opportunity as intense pressure from his boss, Olusegun Obasanjo, (he was) deceived to allow Obasanjo to complete two terms, instead of the Mandela option of one term earlier suggested.

By 2007, Atiku would realise he had made a grave mistake by not contesting against his boss in the previous dispensation when all obstacles, including hounding all his supporters and suspending him from party, were put on his way.

That was his worst chance as he had no formidable party platform; the standing structures he had were seized from him; he was slammed with all sorts of allegations, in addition to a vengeful President willing to go to any extent to stop him.

By 2011, the former VP, however, started showing signs of recovering from the humiliation of the previous outing when he found his way back to the PDP and defeated former military President, General Ibrahim Babangida, to emerge as the northern consensus candidate.

But the sympathy people had for Goodluck Jonathan as the first from his side of the country to rule Nigeria, coupled with the power of incumbency, weighed in heavily making Atiku to lose the PDP ticket.

By 2015, when the former VP teamed up with others to leave the PDP, he knew that he stood only a little chance because of the presence of people like Buhari whom many believe would secure northern votes for the party. It was not surprising that Atiku came a distant third at the APC primary.

Hence, apart from 2003 when Atiku had a golden opportunity to strike and covet the prize but didn’t, the other big opportunity he had was in 2019 when he clinched the PDP ticket to contest against Buhari.

It was a good opportunity because, disappointed by a lacklustre performance his supporters no longer revered the former military ruler as the messiah and were looking for an alternative.

Still, the power of incumbency did not allow Atiku take the prize, though many believed he won that election.

He entered the 2023 race against many odds, which included the fact that his party had agreed to zone the ticket of the South. By the time intrigues in the party shattered that arrangement, Atiku had the challenge of uniting all the aggrieved to work with him.

The APC took advantage of that decision and got key leaders of the PDP to engage in anti-party activities to work for them, which led to the defeat of the PDP.

But Atiku is not burdened by these encumbrances in the build-up to 2027. Some factors seem to favour him not just as an opposition candidate, but also as one whose experience could help to check electoral manipulations.

The first is the hardship brought on citizens by the Tinubu administration’s harsh policies, which made the average Nigerian fall under the poverty level.

This comes as an advantage to the opposition because citizens finding it hard to meet their basic needs have become blind to the issue of political correctness like zoning, hence, do not care whatever zone the next President comes from in so far as he promises to ease the burden on them.

Removal of oil subsidy, floating of the naira, increase in electricity tariff, harassment of bureau de change operators, even as insecurity persists, have given the Tinubu administration a below-average rating, while Atiku is further helped on this by his criticisms of the harsh policies and his offer of alternative ways of coming out of the woods.

Tinubu has failed to win the confidence of the North with his harsh policies and lukewarm attitude to issues that affect the region.

Northerners feel betrayed that what they’re getting in terms of key appointments are not commensurate with the support they gave Tinubu in 2023.

All these have de-marketed the APC-led government in the North.

Again, Tinubu’s humiliation of people like Nasir El-Rufai and his inability to win over Rabiu Kwankwaso due to the influence of Abdullahi Ganduje is continuously robbing him of support from that base.

Ironically too, the 2023 outing of Atiku in which he contested against the principle of zoning has come as a blessing because he had by that already sold the idea of a northerner contesting and people are now used to it and it may not appear brazen as it did during the last election.

Also, it is due to the influence of the northerners in Tinubu’s government who are expecting the President to support them for the presidential ticket in 2031, a reconciliation to bring in Kwankwaso and El-rufai back to the president’s side does not seem likely.

As it is, all Atiku needs to do is to surmount the obstacles that come with power of incumbency, address the issue of party platform and sustain the cooperation with other opposition figures to win in 2027.

Tackling incumbency would mean ensuring that the electoral body and the security agencies are restrained from being overly partisan.

To achieve this, he may need to look at the scrap book of the APC in the build up to the 2015 elections where they made a heavy weather of foreign monitoring of the elections and threats of sanctions to enforce a level playing field.

That it worked in previous elections implies it can also work if the method is applied correctly.

For the challenge of a political party, as it is, all the major parties have been taking over by fifth columnists making it difficult for the opposition to have a platform viable enough to give the APC a good run for its money.

But that too can be handled with a surprise realignment of forces and mobilisation of resources like what Governor Simi Fubara did at the last minute during  Rivers State local government elections in 2024.

How Atiku, Peter Obi and Kwankwaso are able to work together would also matter but not as much as it did in 2023 because unlike 2023 when all the candidates had almost an equal chance, they have accepted their rating per the last presidential elections where Atiku came second.

The belief that that 2027 is the turn of the north if Atiku again gives a commitment  to do only one term.

Despite these advantages, the fact is, if Atiku secures the ticket of the major opposition party, he would be facing the most vicious and virulent political force he has ever stood against since he started taking shots at the presidency.

• Okude contributed this piece from Abuja.